FXUS61 KILN 030535 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 135 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail into the weekend. A weak cold front will drop into the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Short wave over the lower Great Lakes will continue to progress southeast and should be past the area by peak heating. At the surface, high pressure will persist. The atmosphere is forecast to have little or no cap, but forcing will be minimal at best. So cannot rule out isolated convection but most area will stay dry with just diurnal cumulus. Various convective allowing models are showing a few cells, with any signal in the HREF suggesting the relatively higher probability (still less than 20 percent) extending from west central Ohio into central Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Heights will be rising as a mid level high builds northeast. And the surface high will remain firmly entrenched. There could still be some diurnal cumulus, but likely less than today. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure parks east of the Ohio Valley and upper level ridging remains in place over the region Friday night through Sunday morning. Above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist along with weak southerly flow. Surface dew points are likely to reach close to 70 on Saturday afternoon which limits the maximum heat index values to below 100 assuming the current temperature and dew point forecasts hold. On Sunday, upper level ridging begins to give wave to more zonal flow to start the week. As upper level flow flattens, a weak surface front may drop in from the north. The combination of zonal flow and the weak cold front should help to support shower and thunderstorm chances starting Sunday afternoon and building Monday and Tuesday afternoons/evenings. A combination of high temperatures and humidity Sunday afternoon may allow the heat index to exceed 100 in a few locations. Temperatures should be a bit more moderated starting Monday. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... While some visibility restrictions at KLUK early in the period cannot be ruled out, recent trends in guidance suggest that is becoming less of a chance. So TAFs are VFR throughout. High clouds will pass across the area early and then scattered cumulus will develop during the day, dissipating with the loss of heating. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...