FXUS61 KILN 020557 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 157 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will work into the region. Mostly dry conditions are expected through Sunday morning with temperatures gradually warming into the weekend. A system will begin to approach the region later in the day on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A cold front moving through the region has washed out over the area. Dry conditions are expected through the near term. Fog has already developed in some areas and expect most of the fog to be across the southeastern portions of the region closer to the frontal boundary. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Generally expect dry conditions through the short term, however a few isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out during the afternoon hours on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Thursday evening, a somewhat ill-defined area of surface high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley region. The upper level pattern will exhibit troughing over the northeastern states and Quebec, and ridging building into the central part of the CONUS. Through the day on Friday, this pattern will not change much, with just a slight eastward movement for both the surface high and the upstream mid-level ridge. Could still see some isolated thunderstorm development Friday afternoon on the northern periphery of the high, primarily across parts of northern Ohio and northeast Indiana. However, most locations will remain dry. Saturday may be the most likely day to remain completely dry, as the ridging will be most firmly established over the ILN CWA on Saturday afternoon. As the ridging moves east, the plume of theta-e will become a little more established over the region, with deep-layer southwesterly flow bringing both warm conditions and increased dewpoints to the region. By Sunday, heat index values will be well into the 90s -- though as of now, it looks like dewpoints will not quite get high enough to put heat index values at the 100 degree advisory criteria. Chances for precipitation will also begin to increase on Sunday, persisting into early next week as well. With increasing instability and less capping, and an upper flow pattern that will become a little more zonal across the Great Lakes, conditions will become more favorable for diurnal convection in the ILN CWA. Model agreement remains somewhat poor in exactly how the ridge will end up breaking down, and where the most favorable corridor for thunderstorm development will be. While chances for storms will exist for Sunday and beyond, as of now, no clear signs for organized convection or significant hazards through the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear to clear skies tonight will give way to cu development on Wednesday. Fog has generally been forming southeast of the TAF sites, however cannot rule out fog still at the area TAF sites. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...