FXUS61 KGYX 270435

AFDGYX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

1235 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

The upper trough will continue to drive our weather through the

middle of the week. Afternoon clouds and isolated to scattered

showers will remain possible each day. Thursday into Friday our

best chance of rain will arrive. A band of rain is forecast move

through the region and bring a good soaking. Exactly how much

rain is low confidence right now, but most locations should see

measurable rainfall.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

Upper level troughing will continue overhead for the near and

short term period of the forecast. However, with little

connection to substantial moisture sources the weather will

remain mainly dry aside from sprinkles and also some rain and

snow showers at higher elevations of the mountains. As has been

the case over the next several days, partly to mostly sunny

skies will eventually give way to mostly cloudy skies during the

afternoon. Highs will be around normal but a 10-15 MPH breeze

will make it feel cooler.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Skies should gradually clear out at most locations except for

the mountains. This will aid in yielding lows in the 20s and

30s.



Drier air should work in from the north on Tuesday allowing for

more sunshine than what we have seen the last few afternoons. As

a result temperatures will be slightly warmer. Winds will be

most gusty in the morning, then tend to subside.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Key Message: Continued seasonable temps with rain looking more

likely for the late week period. Significant rain is

possible...but more likely a fast moving system with 1 to 1.5

inches or less.



Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated.



Forecast Details: By midweek breezy northeast winds will be

increasing as the pressure gradient tightens between surface

high pressure over the interior and Melissa starting to make its

run out into the Atlantic Ocean. That will keep a general

maritime air mass feeding into the forecast area. I expect that

some clouds and occasional showers will be possible...especially

near the coast of western ME.



Really most of the attention is on the trailing trof and chance

for rainfall. Guidance has definitely trended towards rain being

more likely than not...though there remains significant

differences in amounts and timing. Some of that revolves around

the amounts of tropical moisture entrained from Melissa as it

departs northeast and some of it related to the strength of the

mid latitude trofing. DESI cluster analysis show roughly 50

percent of the members with a trof strong enough to support the

NBM median QPF. The remaining 50 percent of members are either

slower or have a weaker trof and less than the median QPF. That

median value is generally between 1 and 1.5 inches across the

area. Over the course of a 12 to 24 hour period I do not

anticipate this being much trouble. The main concern would be

leaf clogged drainage issues. Still some of the higher end

ensemble guidance remains close to 3 inches...but as ECMWF EFI

has been trending away from that it seems we are starting to

narrow on a solid soaking rather than flooding.



&&



.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Short Term...Mostly VFR expected through Tuesday. Gusty

northerly winds will be in place but cigs/vsbys should not

hinder operations.



Long Term...Mostly VFR expected Wednesday...but may start to see

some MVFR CIGs creeping in from the northeast. Areas of IFR will

be likely as rain moves into the area late Thu into Fri. There

may also be some LLWS near the coast as the LLJ lifts northeast

ahead of the front.



&&



.MARINE...

Short Term...low-end SCA wind gusts (around 25 kt) will be

possible late tonight through Tuesday night. A SCA may need to

be issued.



Long Term...Increasing winds and building seas are expected thru

Thu and Fri. SCA conditions look likely and still cannot rule

out a low chance for gale force gusts outside of the bays.



&&



.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...None.

NH...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



NEAR TERM...Ekster

SHORT TERM...Ekster

LONG TERM...Legro

AVIATION...Ekster/Legro

MARINE...Ekster/Legro