FXUS61 KGYX 050632

AFDGYX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

132 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Added fog through the morning to reflect current observations. 

QPF is trending down slightly Friday through Saturday, but 

soaking rain for the coast remains on the table as well as 

beneficial rain inland. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A wetter period begins today with scattered showers moving 

in ahead of a frontal boundary. A soaking rain is likely Friday 

and Saturday at the coast as the front stalls offshore, with 

beneficial rain inland as well.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

An initial band of showers crosses the area today as a front 

approaches from the west, moving into New Hampshire between 8 

and 9 AM and reaching the Maine boarder before noon. These 

showers looks to move out before sunset and ultimately won't 

amount to much QPF-wise. Amounts in New Hampshire look to range 

from a tenth to a quarter with the Seacoast having a better 

chance of only seeing a few hundredths. The frontal boundary 

slows and stalls Thursday night with shower activity continuing 

along it. Models have come to a consensus that it stalls at the 

coast or just offshore and will become a focus for an axis of 

heavier rain as it taps into tropical moisture and drives PWATs 

upwards of 1.25 to 1.40, well above normal for this time of 

year. However, models show dry air intruding on the back side of

the front so the precipitation shield could be pretty sharp as 

low pressure rides along the front through Friday. This would 

result in a soaking rainfall confined to the coast with not too 

much occuring north of the foothills. All hope is not lost for 

these locations though as models are also suggesting a localized

coastal low spinning up on Saturday that would help to push 

rain further inland, but it would not be at the magnitude the 

coast sees the day before. As models trend the axis of heavier 

rain further off shore NBM probabilities of greater than an inch

of rain in the Friday through Saturday timeframe have come down

quite a bit since this time last night. The coast is now in the

40 to 50 percent range with slightly higher probabilities for 

the Midcoast. If we drop this down to a half inch we get 

probabilities 50 to 60 percent from the foothills down to the 

coast (with closer to 70 percent probabilities at the coast). 

With 30 to 40 percent probabilities in northern New Hampshire 

and the Western Maine Mountains. I hate to say it, but it 

certainly looks like we are trending toward the rug getting 

pulled again, but at this point any rain is beneficial as many 

places have not seen measurable rain in over two weeks. 



Troughing persists into the middle of next week, but at this 

time it looks like it is only going to be good for upslope rain 

and snow showers in the mountains with locations south of the 

mountains returning to mostly dry weather.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Through 06Z Friday: Prior to this morning, some patchy fog is

being reported and may continue through the morning across the

interior. This has brought some reduced restrictions to LEB

overnight. 



Today will see generally light southerly winds with 

gusts 15-20 mph possible in the afternoon. Ceilings lower to 

MVFR around 15Z at many locations with light rain showers moving

through LEB and HIE. Showers become more scattered as they move

eastward, so only used VCSH or left them out completely for the

other terminals. At best MVFR ceilings continue tonight, with 

IFR ceilings and/or visibilities possible at locations that see 

rain. 



Outlook...

Friday-Saturday: MVFR conditions likely areawide, with coastal 

terminals having a higher chance of seeing IFR conditions in 

rain that may be heavy at times. 



Sunday-Monday: Returningto VFR conditions.



&&



.MARINE...

Winds and seas are generally expected to remain below SCA 

thresholds into the middle of next week, but as we move into a 

more active pattern localized low pressure systems and frontal 

passages may allow for brief windows of marginal SCA conditions.



&&



.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...None.

NH...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Baron