FXUS61 KCTP 272321 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 721 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Seasonably cool and dry conditions through Tuesday * Soaking rain late Wednesday through Thursday tapers to showers for Halloween * Breezy/showery/chilly start to November && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Temperatures have warmed into the mid-upper 50s across most of central PA, with the exception of the northern tier who remain in the upper 40s early this afternoon. Some cirrus clouds associated with low pressure across the southeast U.S. will stream in, but high pressure will maintain drier low levels. Thus expect another chilly night with temperatures in the mid 20s north to low 30s south. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain in control through the day on Tuesday and will keep conditions seasonably cool and dry. Temperatures will again be near to slightly below normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. East/northeast winds will be slightly stronger on Tuesday, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible as the pressure gradient tightens between an area of low pressure across the western Atlantic and the ridge of high pressure over southeastern Canada. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Confidence continues to increase in a widespread, soaking rainfall from late Wednesday into Thursday night. Surface low pressure will track northward into Pennsylvania as its parent upper trough interacts with an upper low to our northeast, pulling a plume of moisture into Pennsylvania from the Atlantic. The trough becomes negatively tilted as it approaches the region, which should center the strongest synoptic scale forcing right over Central PA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. NBM QPF through Thursday ranges from just over an inch over northwestern PA, to an inch and three quarters for areas east of I-99 and south of I-80. An additional 1/2 inch or so of rain looks possible Thursday night into Friday morning. It is worth noting that there are still quite a few ensemble members that suggest portions of south-central PA could see upwards of 2 inches of rain. WPC has expanded the marginal risk of excessive rainfall to include all of Central Pennsylvania, but with the drier than normal conditions over the past few weeks, the rainfall should largely be beneficial. In addition to the rainfall, winds will be gusty on Thursday with a fairly tight pressure gradient around the low. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, with some gusts to 35 mph possible in the higher terrain of the Alleghenies. While there are still some timing differences in the models, expect rainfall to gradually taper off late Thursday into early Friday as the low begins to move off to the north. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will continue through the weekend as upper troughing remains in place over the northeastern United States. High temperatures through the weekend will remain near to slightly below normal, generally ranging from the upper 40s to the mid to upper 50s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are virtually certain at all airfields across central Pennsylvania outside of BFD through 00Z Wednesday, with BFD retaining very high (~80-90%) confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Wednesday. Main concern overnight will be the presence of fog formation across the northern tier. Based on recent observations and comparing to 22/23Z observations yesterday evening it looks like fog formation into Tuesday morning will look very similar to Monday morning, so at this time thinking persistence is a winning forecast which aligns with all model guidance, too. Light winds, variable at times, are expected overnight generallyless than 5 kts sustained before increasing after 14Z Tuesday. Winds predominately turn E/NE'ly after 14Z Tuesday based on a consensus of recent RAP/HREF model guidance, with sustained winds 7-12 kts. Some wind gusts will make a run towards 20 kts; however, confidence remains too low to include gusty winds in the 00Z TAF package and will need to be monitored in future cycles especially across at JST/MDT/LNS. Outlook... Wed-Thu...Rain spreads south to north with restrictions most likely Wednesday night through Thursday. Fri-Sat...Breezy with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Guseman/Bauco SHORT TERM...Guseman/Bauco LONG TERM...Guseman/Bauco AVIATION...NPB