FXUS61 KCTP 271730 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 130 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Seasonably cool and dry conditions through Tuesday * Soaking rain Thursday tapers to showers for Halloween * Breezy/showery/chilly start to November && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Temperatures are in the 20s and 30s this morning across Central PA and patchy valley fog has formed under clear skies with light winds. The fog will likely continue to expand through sunrise, and then will begin to gradually dissipate through mid-morning. High pressure centered to our north will keep skies mainly clear today with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. Another night with temperatures in the 20s and 30s is expected for tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain in control through the day on Tuesday and will keep conditions seasonably cool and dry. Temperatures will again be near to slightly below normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be slightly higher on Tuesday, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible as the pressure gradient tightens between an area of low pressure to our south and the high over southeastern Canada. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Confidence continues to increase in a widespread, soaking rainfall from late Wednesday through Thursday. Surface low pressure will track northward into Pennsylvania as its parent upper trough interacts with an upper low to our northeast, pulling a plume of moisture into Pennsylvania from the Atlantic. The trough becomes negatively tilted as it approaches the region, which should center the strongest synoptic scale forcing right over Central PA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. NBM QPF ranges from right around an inch over northwestern PA, to an inch and a half for areas east of I-99 and south of I-80. It is worth noting that there are still quite a few ensemble members that suggest portions of south-central PA could see upwards of 2 inches of rain. WPC has expanded the marginal risk of excessive rainfall to include all of Central Pennsylvania, but with the drier than normal conditions over the past few weeks, the rainfall should largely be beneficial. In addition to the rainfall, winds will be gusty on Thursday with a fairly tight pressure gradient around the low. Winds gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, with some gusts to 35 mph possible in the higher terrain of the Alleghenies. While there are still some timing differences in the models, expect rainfall to gradually taper off late Thursday into early Friday as the low begins to move off to the north. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will continue through the weekend as upper troughing remains in place over the northeastern United States. High temperatures through the weekend will remain near to slightly below normal, generally ranging from the upper 40s to the mid to upper 50s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Clear skies will dominate the remainder of this afternoon and throughout the overnight hours. VFR will prevail for the next 24 hours with very few clouds expected to be present through tomorrow. Light winds will continue through the afternoon with some gusts possible over the western mountains. Patchy valley fog is possible again this evening, but surface air is dry enough that terminals are unlikely to see any impacts from the minor fog developments. The probability of fog reducing flight categories remains <10%. Outlook... Tue...Dry, VFR conditions. Wed-Thu...Rain spreads south to north with restrictions most likely Wednesday night through Thursday. Fri...Breezy with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Bauco SHORT TERM...Bauco LONG TERM...Bauco AVIATION...Bowen