FXUS61 KCTP 271120

AFDCTP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

720 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

* Seasonably cool and dry conditions through Tuesday

* Soaking rain Thursday tapers to showers for Halloween

* Breezy/showery/chilly start to November



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Temperatures are in the 20s and 30s this morning across Central

PA and patchy valley fog has formed under clear skies with light

winds. The fog will likely continue to expand through sunrise,

and then will begin to gradually dissipate through mid-morning.

High pressure centered to our north will keep skies mainly 

clear today with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. Another

night with temperatures in the 20s and 30s is expected for

tonight.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure will remain in control through the day on Tuesday

and will keep conditions seasonably cool and dry. Temperatures

will again be near to slightly below normal with highs in the

50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be slightly higher

on Tuesday, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible as the pressure

gradient tightens between an area of low pressure to our south 

and the high over southeastern Canada.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Confidence continues to increase in a widespread, soaking

rainfall from late Wednesday through Thursday. Surface low

pressure will track northward into Pennsylvania as its parent

upper trough interacts with an upper low to our northeast,

pulling a plume of moisture into Pennsylvania from the Atlantic.

The trough becomes negatively tilted as it approaches the 

region, which should center the strongest synoptic scale forcing

right over Central PA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

NBM QPF ranges from right around an inch over northwestern PA, 

to an inch and a half for areas east of I-99 and south of I-80. 

It is worth noting that there are still quite a few ensemble 

members that suggest portions of south-central PA could see 

upwards of 2 inches of rain. WPC has expanded the marginal risk 

of excessive rainfall to include all of Central Pennsylvania, 

but with the drier than normal conditions over the past few 

weeks, the rainfall should largely be beneficial.



In addition to the rainfall, winds will be gusty on Thursday

with a fairly tight pressure gradient around the low. Winds

gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, with some gusts to 35 mph

possible in the higher terrain of the Alleghenies. 



While there are still some timing differences in the models,

expect rainfall to gradually taper off late Thursday into early

Friday as the low begins to move off to the north. Lake effect

and upslope rain showers will continue through the weekend as

upper troughing remains in place over the northeastern United

States. High temperatures through the weekend will remain near 

to slightly below normal, generally ranging from the upper 40s 

to the mid to upper 50s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

High confidence in VFR conditions at all airfields today with a

light E/NE'ly wind (5 to 7 kts sustained, all gusts below 15 

kts). Tonight, expect a similar extent of fog as this morning,

which favors no restrictions at any airfields.



Outlook...



Mon-Tue...VFR conditions.



Wed-Thu...Rain spreads south to north with restrictions most

likely Wednesday night through Thursday.



Fri...Breezy with frequent showers downwind of Lake Erie.



&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl

NEAR TERM...Bauco

SHORT TERM...Bauco

LONG TERM...Bauco

AVIATION...Banghoff/NPB