FXUS61 KCTP 071041 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 641 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * The Frost Advisory for tonight has been expanded to include Clearfield and Tioga Counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Have slightly increased rainfall chances later today across the northern tier of the state. Periods of showers possible through Friday, then rain likely Saturday and part of Sunday. 2) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential returning this morning and later tonight into Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Have slightly increased rainfall chances later today across the northern tier of the state. Periods of showers possible through Friday, then rain likely Saturday and Sunday. Light rain showers are moving out of far SE PA early this morning. In their wake, drier conditions are expected to start Thursday. Increasing troughing as the day progresses though has lead to slightly increased signal for scattered showers north of I-80 later tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Friday also sees chances of rain mostly across northern PA as another troughing feature moves through. Rain chances increase for the weekend as multiple disturbances track across the area. ------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential returning tonight and tomorrow night. High pressure building in behind the cold front tonight will allow for skies to at least partially clear out over northwest PA and allow for winds to become light. This should support efficient radiational cooling and we expect temperatures to fall into the mid 30s over much of the northern tier. Frost formation appears most likely over the northwestern corner of the CWA and we have issued a Frost Advisory for Warren, McKean, Elk, Cameron, Clearfield, Potter, and Tioga Counties which is in effect from midnight through 8 am Thursday. Patchy frost may still be possible outside of the advisory if skies clear out at least a few hours before sunrise. Another chilly night is expected for Thursday night with frost and freeze conditions possible once again. Not many pixels of 32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is there for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for frost is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. Cloud cover moving in early in the morning may limit how long the frost lasts; will monitor new model data as the day progresses to get a better handle of timing details for likely frost advisory. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Very high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing throughout the 12Z TAF cycle with the back edge of the ~6000-8000ft AGL cloud deck stationed across MDT/LNS but expected to clear out over the next hour and give way to clear skies. Model guidance continues to highlight a BKN-OVC low-to-mid level cloud deck across much of the region today, so have continued mentions closely to the 06Z TAF package with only slight timing adjustments. The biggest change from the 06Z TAF package was the introduction of a PROB30 group for SHRA at IPT, where recent forecast outlines a ~30-40% chance of some rainfall at the terminal between 01Z-03Z Friday while other airfields have lower probabilities of measurable rainfall. Low-to-mid level deck begins to enter central Pennsylvania from the west towards the end of the 12Z TAF package; however, all guidance suggests ceilings well above VFR thresholds, so no concerns for sub-VFR conditions at this time. Outlook... Fri...VFR with some spotty afternoon/evening SHRA. Sat...Restrictions possible in RA. Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely in the afternoon as coldfront moves SE. SHRA with isolated TSRA possible as cold front passes through. Mon...VFR favored, with restrictions possible SE from lingering SHRA/RA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-010- 011-017-037. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert/Lambrech KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Lambrech DISCUSSION...Colbert/Lambrech AVIATION...Beaty