FXUS61 KCTP 070714

AFDCTP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

314 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The Frost Advisory for tonight has been expanded to include 

  Clearfield and Tioga Counties.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Have slightly increased rainfall chances later today across 

the northern tier of the state. Periods of showers possible through Friday, 

then rain likely Saturday and part of Sunday.



2) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential 

returning this morning and later tonight into Friday morning.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Have slightly increased rainfall chances later 

today across the northern tier of the state. Periods of showers 

possible through Friday, then rain likely Saturday and Sunday.



Light rain showers are moving out of far SE PA early this

morning. In their wake, drier conditions are expected to start

Thursday. Increasing troughing as the day progresses though 

has lead to slightly increased signal for scattered showers

north of I-80 later tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Friday

also sees chances of rain mostly across northern PA as another

troughing feature moves through. Rain chances increase for the 

weekend as multiple disturbances track across the area.



      -------------------------------------------------



KEY MESSAGE 2: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze 

potential returning tonight and tomorrow night.



High pressure building in behind the cold front tonight will

allow for skies to at least partially clear out over northwest 

PA and allow for winds to become light. This should support 

efficient radiational cooling and we expect temperatures to fall

into the mid 30s over much of the northern tier. Frost 

formation appears most likely over the northwestern corner of 

the CWA and we have issued a Frost Advisory for Warren, McKean, 

Elk, Cameron, Clearfield, Potter, and Tioga Counties which is in

effect from midnight through 8 am Thursday. Patchy frost may 

still be possible outside of the advisory if skies clear out at 

least a few hours before sunrise.



Another chilly night is expected for Thursday night with frost

and freeze conditions possible once again. Not many pixels of 

32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is there 

for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for frost 

is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel 

Highlands. Cloud cover moving in early in the morning may limit

how long the frost lasts; will monitor new model data as the 

day progresses to get a better handle of timing details for 

likely frost advisory. 

 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Back edge of the lower-level cloud deck roughly stationed along

a YNG-HLG-UNI line will continue tracking further east this 

morning, with widespread SKC expected on the end of the back-end

of this cloud deck. A brief period of SCT-BKN is possible just 

ahead of SKC; however, VFR conditions are virtually certain 

overnight through 12Z Thursday. Some scattered rain showers 

across SE PA (MDT/LNS) will bring some chances; however, this 

will be on a subtle downtrend between 06-09Z Thursday. Highest 

potential for SHRA at the airfields will be limited to LNS, thus

have outlined a slightly lower-level (still VFR) cloud deck.



Model guidance does indicate some scattered SHRA, mainly 

impacting N/W PA throughout the late afternoon and early 

evening hours, generally between 17Z Thur and 04Z Fri. Recent 

HREF/GLAMP model guidance is not super robust with respect to 

mentions; however, could see mentions being added in at 

BFD/IPT/UNV in future TAF packages but given the lower (< 30%) 

confidence have removed any mentions at this time. All model 

guidance points towards another (mostly) clear overnight 

period, so have started to outline some clearing in the 00Z-06Z 

Thur timeframe this cycle, highest confidence across E PA 

(MDT/LNS/IPT/UNV).



Outlook... 



Fri...VFR with some spotty afternoon/evening SHRA.



Sat...Restrictions possible in RA.



Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely

in the afternoon as cold front moves SE. SHRA with isolated 

TSRA possible as cold front passes through.



Mon...VFR favored, with restrictions possible SE from lingering

SHRA/RA.



&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-010-

011-017-037.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert/Lambrech

KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Lambrech

DISCUSSION...Colbert/Lambrech

AVIATION...Beaty