FXUS61 KCTP 070159 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 959 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * The Frost Advisory for tonight has been expanded to include Clearfield and Tioga Counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of showers possible through Friday, then rain likely Saturday and part of Sunday. 2) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential returning tonight and tomorrow night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of showers possible through Friday, then rain likely Saturday and part of Sunday. The bulk of the rain from earlier today has moved off to the east, though patchy drizzle and a few showers will remain possible through the rest of the day. A wave of low pressure is expected to ride along a cold front as it exits the region to the east later this evening, and this may bring a few showers back into southeastern PA. Any additional rainfall will be light. Most of Central Pennsylvania is expected to be dry tomorrow and Friday, but shortwave troughs rotating through the base of a longwave trough may trigger a few showers both days. Rain chances increase for the weekend as multiple disturbances track across the area. ------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential returning tonight and tomorrow night. High pressure building in behind the cold front tonight will allow for skies to at least partially clear out over northwest PA and for winds to become light. This should support efficient radiational cooling and we expect temperatures to fall into the mid 30s over much of the northern tier. Frost formation appears most likely over the northwestern corner of the CWA and we have issued a Frost Advisory for Warren, McKean, Elk, Cameron, Clearfield, Potter, and Tioga Counties which is in effect from midnight through 8 am Friday. Patchy frost may still be possible outside of the advisory if skies clear out at least a few hours before sunrise. Another chilly night is expected for Thursday night with frost and freeze conditions possible once again. Not many pixels of 32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is there for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for frost is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At 01Z Thu, cigs were MVFR at JST and IPT, but VFR elsewhere, with the cold front now southeast of the area. All TAF sites are expected to be VFR by 02-04Z. Some additional light rain showers are possible at LNS as an upper jet streak creates some additional lift over and behind the cold front. Mid level cloudiness will give way to partial clearing later tonight, with some potential for fog development in the northern tier. However, dry air advection in low levels should keep coverage limited, and frost is more likely in northern areas where the boundary layer does decouple. On Thursday, scattered diurnal showers are possible mainly after 18z as an upper shortwave trough provides forcing in a weakly unstable environment. Aside from a few brief vsby restrictions possible in heavier showers, VFR conds are expected with sct to bkn cu/stratocu at 4000-7000 ft AGL. Outlook... Fri...VFR with some spotty afternoon/evening -SHRA. Sat...Restrictions possible in -RA. Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely in the afternoon as cold front moves SE. -SHRA with isolated -TSRA possible as cold front passes through. Mon...VFR favored, with restrictions possible SE from lingering -SHRA/-RA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ004>006-010-011- 017-037. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ColbertKEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Bauco DISCUSSION...Colbert/Bauco AVIATION...Colbert/Teare