FXUS61 KCTP 050828 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 328 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Continuing to trend temperatures lower on Saturday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-long dry spell now over. 2) Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced rain showers beneath upper level low && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks- long dry spell now over. Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week. Max/Min temps will be 10 to 20 degrees above the historical average for the first week of November, but should fall short of daily record highs (see climate section). A leading frontal band of light rain moved through the area overnight with some trailing scattered showers. Fcst rainfall amounts are generally between a tenth and three tenths of an inch through 00Z Fri with some locally higher amounts possible. This officially ends the 2.5 weeks- long dry spell, which ranked in the top 15 longest such streaks at most locations around Central PA. The front slows/stalls near the I95 corridor tonight. A dry slot may keep most locations dry this afternoon into Friday following the initial period of rain. A shortwave trough/closed H5 low dropping southeast from the Great Lakes is expected to reinvigorate precipitation along the nearly stationary frontal zone on Friday which could clip the far southeast zones/Lower Susquehanna Valley. Model trends have been shifting this rain farther to the east/closer to the coast over the past few cycles. After approaching 70F on Friday afternoon in the southeast, temperatures will drop quickly Friday night as cooler air filters in behind the cold front. Lows by Saturday morning range from the mid 30s west of I-99 to the mid 40s in the southeast. KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced rain showers beneath upper level low Seasonably cooler/breezy pattern to start the first full weekend of November. The passage of closed H5 low followed by mean cyclonic flow favors persistent clouds and periods of lake enhanced rain over the western and central Alleghenies on Saturday. We were keen to manually adjust max temps a few degrees lower on 11/7 to account for the cooler pattern shift which looks to continue into early next week. If the current forecast holds, it will be the first below average daytime high in three weeks! && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Periods of light rain and lowering ceilings to MVFR and possibly IFR this morning. Marginal LLWS ending 14-18Z from west to east. Dry slot promotes a drying/improving trend by the afternoon for most of the area; best odds for lingering rain and sub-VFR ceilings over the far southeast airfields KMDT/KLNS this evening into early tonight. Outlook... Fri...Showers and sub-VFR ceilings most likely over the western airfields impacting KBFD and KJST. Sat-Mon...Breezy with showers and sub-VFR ceilings possible over the NW 1/2 of the airspace. Max gusts 20-25kt. && .CLIMATE... 1. Today will mark the end of the following Consecutive Days streaks without measurable rain: 10/17 through 11/4 (19 days): Harrisburg, Williamsport, Altoona, State College 10/18 through 11/4 (18 days): Johnstown 10/18 through 11/2 (16 days): Bradford 2. Daily record highs for 11/4 and 11/5: Harrisburg 78/1994 | 79/1975 Williamsport 75/2003 | 77/1994 Altoona 77/2003 | 77/2015 Bradford *TIED = 74/2015 | 76/2024 State College 78/2003 | 75/2015 3. The sun will set at 5PM on Saturday 11/7 in State College. This will mark the beginning of a 2 month period during which sunsets will occur before 5PM surrounding the Winter Solstice. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff