FXUS61 KCTP 031054

AFDCTP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

654 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

* Scattered storms this afternoon and very early evening as a

  cold front moves through. Some may make gusty winds and hail.

* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for

  Independence Day.

* Trending warmer and more humid but rain-free this weekend

* Hot and unsettled weather returns next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Earlier convection is gone. River valley fog in the nrn 

mtns should go away soon, too. Good forcing crosses the lower 

lakes later this morning and enters nrn PA in the afternoon, 

rekindling deep convection. Severe parameters aren't shabby, 

with CAPE into the 1000-2000J/kg range ahead of and along the 

cold front. Deep layer shear of 40-50KTs at the peak could be 

enough to make some supercells, but mostly clusters. However, we

will be under the descending area of the curved jet max at 5H. 

That is the ingredient which could keep the convection 

suppressed somewhat. SPC has continued the Day1 Outlook exactly 

as the old Day2 = most of the CWA is in the MRGL risk area with 

a SLGT risk barely touching the far eastern two cos. Will 

continue to mention TS with small hail and gusty winds. The 

worst of the storms will likely be off to our east. 



Some lingering SHRA will last until just after sunset in the SE,

but it's only worth a 20 PoP for isolated coverage. After the

front passes, which will be mid aftn in the N, and early evening

in the S, the air will dry out with sfc dewpoints into the 50s

by sunrise Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Friday looks like a stellar Independence Day. No risk of any

precip, and humidity getting very low during the afternoon. Have

strayed from the NBM dewpoints for Fri and Sat aftns, with

Friday being the largest deviance. Light N wind and good

sunshine Fri. Very dry air just above the sfc in the AM and 

mixing to ~5kft in the aftn could drop dewpoints into the 40s 

across the Allegheny Plateau and M50s in the SE. That may not be

enough of a move, but will start with that. Maxes on Friday of 

U70s to M80s are very seasonable, and we'll probably see a few 

degs of uptick in temps Sat aftn. High pressure will provide a 

dry time for both days. A little fog will be had in the valleys 

since it gets close to 50F in the nrn mtns Fri AM, but the dry 

airmass will work against it. Dewpoints are going to be low 

enough on Sat AM that there won't be much, if any, fog. Then, 

the wind turns Swrly, and humidity levels start to creep upward

during the long holiday weekend, but no rain.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Compared to previous guidance, today's model runs have slowed

down with the arrival of precip associated with a shortwave

trough late Sunday. Most of the day looks hot and mostly sunny

with highs in the upper 80s. PoPs increase into Monday as the

trough arrives. Monday should be the hottest day with L90s SE 

of the Allegheny Front. Forecast uncertainty increases Tuesday 

and Wednesday, as several ensemble members show showers/storms 

lingering as the front slows down, while much of the 

deterministic guidance has drier air pushing in.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Skies are mainly clear this evening over Central PA and VFR

conditions are expected through the first half of today. Patchy

valley fog will formed overnight, but the coverage of fog is

sparse and will quickly dissipate into the early morning.



The main focus through the 12Z Friday will be a shortwave that 

will traverse the region and bring isolated showers and 

thunderstorms to portions of the area this afternoon. The 

surface cold front associated with this upper level shortwave 

will move in during the afternoon and will trigger afew 

thunderstorms over eastern PA. This cold front will be largely 

moisture starved; however, given the instability in the eastern 

portion of PA it is possible isolated to scattered storms may 

cause some impacts. These thunderstorms will have the best 

chance of impacting IPT, MDT, and LNS, while areas farther to 

the west likely remain dry. Confidence still remains low on 

development and coverage of afternoon convection.





Outlook...



Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.



Mon-Tue...Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.



&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo

NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo

SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo

LONG TERM...Colbert

AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen