FXUS61 KCTP 021928 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 328 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for today through Friday, with a high confidence of dry weather and seasonable temperatures on Independence Day * Trending warmer and more humid this weekend; unsettled pattern returns by Sunday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Near to slightly below normal PWAT air with abundant sunshine over the bulk of the CWA will give us a welcome break from the humid and rainy conditions of the past several days. Abundant sunshine with a spattering of fair weather cu will be found across much of the region, with the NW edge of a layer of higher clouds exiting the Lower Susq Valley this afternoon. The drier air won't be all that much drier over the SE with Tds still holding in the upper 60s to low 70s (F). Max temps this afternoon will vary from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west, to the mid and upper 80s respectively in the central and southern valleys, which are very near seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Mainly clear sky conditions are expected for most of the night, until the approach of a weak cold front from the N. Weak ridging over the area should allow for light wind and some fog. The fog should not be as widespread as this (Wed) AM. The clouds coming in with the front will try to make a shower around or just before sunrise over the NW. Short wave trough aloft and a jet max of 70+KTs will help drive some taller showers and support a MRGL risk of severe wx. Deep layer shear will be 40-60KTs, with the higher values across the NE. The cells should be moving along and PWATs much nearer to normal than of late (1-1.25"). So, not expecting any flooding issues. Did add in a 20 PoP to the SE after 00Z, but those SHRA/TSRA should dwindle quickly after sunset and the passage of the good forcing in the early evening. One more chance for fog (only in the valleys of the nrn mtns) Fri AM. Prev... We continue to have high confidence/conviction in a really nice Independence Day with a near zero chance for rain and great viewing for fireworks. The wind will be pretty light, if not calm, at 8-9PM, and may keep the smoke around with little evacuation. Min temps Friday night will be quite comfortable in the low 50s to low 60s. Humidity levels start to creep upward to start the first weekend of July; however it will remain dry with unsettled weather expected to return Sunday into early next week. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Compared to previous guidance, today's model runs have slowed down with the arrival of precip associated with a shortwave trough late Sunday. Most of the day looks hot and mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s. PoPs increase into Monday as the trough arrives. Forecast uncertainty increases Tuesday and Wednesday, as several ensemble members show showers/storms lingering as the front slows down, while much of the deterministic guidance has drier air pushing in. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect a break from showers and storms today. The airmass will dry out significantly across most of the state with excellent vsby and sct-bkn fair weather cu. Light wind, moist ground and significant radiational cooling of the surface will lead to areas of 1/2SM vsbys in the deeper stream/river valleys of the Central and North for 2-4 hour early Thursday, possibly impacting the airfields of KAOO, KUNV KIPT and KBFD. For Thursday, a narrow wedge of moisture moves back into the state from the west ahead of a Canadian airmass/cold frontal boundary. There's some chance of a gusty storm with brief heavy rain (Especially across the North-Central Mountains and Mid Susquehanna Valley), but any of these would not last long in any one spot, plus that is beyond the time range of the 12Z TAF package. Outlook... Thu...Primarily VFR; stray PM shower/t-storm possible. Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Colbert AVIATION...Lambert/Martin