FXUS61 KCTP 020952 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 552 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy downpours, will diminish overnight * Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for mid to late week, with a high confidence of dry weather and seasonable temperatures on Independence Day * Trending warmer and more humid this weekend; unsettled pattern returns by Sunday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Nighttime microphysics RGB sat loop shows fog and low clouds filling in the areas that have cleared of the thicker/higher clouds and rain showers. Thus far, DuBois, Clearfield and Wellsboro are the only places dipping to 1/4sm as some places are getting the low cloud deck vs fog. However, if the low visbys spread, we may issue a dense fog advy. Have tweaked the sky cover and wx grids to make more mentions of the low clouds and fog vs what guidance was giving us. Just lingering light showers currently over the SE (330 AM). Mid-level trough does push east this morning, so those showers should do so, as well. It's tough to pick out a prominent cold front without much dip in the dewpoints. BFD is still above 60F on Td, and probably won't get down to 55F this aftn. Elsewhere, the dewpoints/RH remain high and the air remains sticky. The drier air won't be all that much drier over the SE with m-u60s still in store there even during peak mixing later today. Maxes of 77-87F across the region seem fine, and are very near seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly clear sky expected for most of the night, until the approach of a weak cold front from the N. Weak ridging over the area should allow for light wind and some fog. The fog should not be as widespread as this (Wed) AM. The clouds coming in with the front will try to make a shower around or just before sunrise over the NW. Short wave trough aloft and a jet max of 70+KTs will help drive some taller showers and support a MRGL risk of severe wx. Deep layer shear will be 40-60KTs, with the higher values across the NE. The cells should be moving along and PWATs much nearer to normal than of late (1-1.25"). So, not expecting any flooding issues. Did add in a 20 PoP to the SE after 00Z, but those SHRA/TSRA should dwindle quickly after sunset and the passage of the good forcing in the early evening. One more chance for fog (only in the valleys of the nrn mtns) Fri AM. Prev... We continue to have high confidence/conviction in a really nice Independence Day with a near zero chance for rain and great viewing for fireworks. The wind will be pretty light, if not calm, at 8-9PM, and may keep the smoke around with little evacuation. Min temps Friday night will be quite comfortable in the low 50s to low 60s. Humidity levels start to creep upward to start the first weekend of July; however it will remain dry with unsettled weather expected to return Sunday into early next week. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure approaching the Great Lakes by Sunday morning will bring about increasing chances for precipitation for the second half of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Just enough wind above the ground to keep the fog and low clouds from being too widespread and consistent. Fog in and out at some aras overnight. A bit more widespread now, as the sun comes up, but that is normal as the sun comes up. Thus expect conditions to become VFR at all areas by mid morning. Other than maybe a few drops of rain at LNS early on, expect a break from showers and storms today. The airmass will dry out a bit, so not looking at much potential for fog tonight. For Thursday, some chance of a gusty storm with brief heavy rain, but any of these would not last long in any one spot, plus that is beyond the time range of the 12Z TAF package. Outlook... Thu...Primarily VFR; stray PM shower/t-storm possible. Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006- 010>012-017-018-026-034-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Banghoff/NPB AVIATION...Martin