FXUS61 KCLE 071155 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 755 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Frost potential is decreasing tonight with clouds and scattered rain entering more quickly. Rain chances are increasing on Friday with an incoming system. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool weather will continue today with some spotty showers possible tonight. Clouds and rain into the region will reduce the potential for frost tonight. 2) Several rounds of rain are expected Friday through Sunday. New rainfall amounts should be less than one inch with no flooding concerns at this time. 3) Below normal temperatures are expected early next week with frost chances on Sunday night and Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A surface ridge will briefly remain across the area for today, allowing for dry weather. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal with highs in the 50s. An upper trough with a surface warm front will enter tonight and allow for clouds with some scattered rain showers. These clouds and rain showers are timed a bit quicker than previous model cycles and this could eliminate any frost potential tonight, as temperatures may stay in the upper 30s or warmer. KEY MESSAGE 2... A broader upper trough over the Great Lakes region will support the development of a low pressure system in the region and allow for rain activity for Friday through Saturday. The main warm front will cross the area on Friday with a subtle shortwave trough. This should allow for some rain development across the area on Friday and have maintained PoPs. The main show for rain should be Friday night with a more refined shortwave entering with a 35 kt low level jet helping generate some rain activity. Have increased PoPs to a mix of likely and categorical. Temperatures will moderate a touch on Friday and Saturday with 60s and maybe some lower 70s possible. A pair of cold fronts will move through the region on Saturday and Sunday, bringing additional rain chances each day. Rainfall amounts should be less than one inch through a four day period and flooding issues are not expected at this time. KEY MESSAGE 3... The pattern changing cold front will move through the area on Sunday and temperatures will return to below normal for 36-48 hours. Low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s. With a dry and clearing air mass, there will be the potential for frost on Sunday and Monday nights, where temperatures can get into the low-to-mid 30s. High temperatures will be in the 50s to maybe 60 on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR will continue through the TAF period as high pressure gradually departs. A few showers are possible late tonight into early Friday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the west. The best chance for rain is in far eastern Ohio and western PA, so went with prevailing showers at KERI. Light and variable winds this morning will turn W this afternoon and increase to 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots at times. Winds will become SW tonight and decrease to 5-10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers early Friday. Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected through the weekend, best chance Friday through Saturday afternoon and during the day Sunday. && .MARINE... The lake will remain relatively quiet through the start of next week as pressure gradients remain relatively weak, supporting mostly low impact winds and waves. W winds will increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon, building waves up to 2 feet, before turning SW and decreasing slightly to 5-15 knots tonight and turning SSW and further decreasing to under 10 knots Friday. S to SW winds will gradually increase Friday night and reach 10-15 knots by Saturday afternoon before turning N and decreasing to 5-10 knots behind a fairly sharp cold front late Saturday night and Sunday. N winds will then increase to 10-15 knots Sunday night and Monday. No marine headlines are expected at this time through early next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sefcovic AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Garuckas