FXUS61 KCLE 030518

AFDCLE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

118 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A weak cold front will move south across the area on Thursday, 

followed by building high pressure for Friday into Saturday. Another 

cold front will approach the region from the west on Sunday into 

Monday.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

950 PM Update...

Increased PoPs slightly across the eastern lakeshore counties

and adjusted the timing to be later over the next few hours. 

The showers and thunderstorms currently over Eastern Michigan 

have been moving southward, though they have been weakening and 

should continue trending that way. 



Main concern for the near term period will be isolated showers and 

thunderstorms along and ahead of a NW to SE-oriented cold front 

Thursday afternoon and evening, with development expected generally 

along and west of the I-77 corridor. For the most part, coverage 

should be limited to isolated showers and storms with dry low and 

mid-levels. For today (Wednesday), main concern will be the 

development of upstream showers and thunderstorms across eastern 

Michigan which may eventually work their way across the central and 

eastern Lake Erie basins later this evening into the overnight.



Seasonable temperatures are expected on Thursday with highs 

generally in the mid-80s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

The latest guidance favors a dry Fourth of July for the area as 

upper-level ridging and high pressure build into the region. 

Precipitation chances will not be 0% for Friday afternoon and 

evening, particularly across Northwest Ohio, though feel comfortable 

in precluding mentionable PoPs at this time (less than 15%). 

Otherwise, the rest of the short term period will feature quiet 

weather and a warming trend as temperatures in the upper 80s on 

Friday increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The warmest day of the long term period will be Sunday with high 

temperatures in the lower 90s across the board and heat indices 

approaching the mid to upper 90s and perhaps briefly touching 100 

degrees at times. As the low-levels begin to moisture ahead of an 

approaching cold front from the west, precipitation chances may 

begin to increase across Northwest Ohio, particularly Sunday evening 

and overnight. Precipitation chances will be the highest on Monday 

when scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected 

along and ahead of a cold front. Currently not outlooked for any 

strong to severe storms, but could see future inclusion if trends 

persist over the next few forecast iterations.



Tuesday should see a reprieve from the rainy pattern as brief high 

pressure builds behind the front. However, the active pattern may 

return on Wednesday as another upper-level trough will move east 

through the Upper Midwest, introducing more opportunities for 

afternoon and evening showers and storms.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through this TAF

period as high pressure slowly begins to build across the area.

This morning, KERI may briefly have reduced visibilities to MVFR

as a line of showers and thunderstorms pushes south off of Lake

Erie. This afternoon, another round of showers and thunderstorms

is possible across the western terminals as decaying storms from

upstream approach the area. The general timing is 21Z-01Z, but

given the very scattered nature expected with these storms,

opted to handle potential with PROB30. In the heaviest storms,

conditions could be reduced to MVFR with gusty winds possible. 



Light and variable winds will persist through mid-morning before

becoming northwesterly at 5-10 knots through the evening. After

00Z tonight, winds will once again return to light and variable.



Outlook...VFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday. Non-

VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday

afternoon through Monday.



&&



.MARINE...

Relatively quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie for the

foreseeable future. There may be a little bit of afternoon

choppiness Wednesday through Friday with mild lake breeze

development. Southwest flow of around 10-15 knots develops on

Saturday and Sunday.



&&



.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...None.

PA...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...Kahn

NEAR TERM...Kahn/23

SHORT TERM...Kahn

LONG TERM...Kahn

AVIATION...04

MARINE...Saunders