FXUS61 KCLE 022329 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move south across the area on Thursday, followed by building high pressure for Friday into Saturday. Another cold front will approach the region from the west on Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the near term period will be isolated showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a NW to SE-oriented cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, with development expected generally along and west of the I-77 corridor. For the most part, coverage should be limited to isolated showers and storms with dry low and mid-levels. For today (Wednesday), main concern will be the development of upstream showers and thunderstorms across eastern Michigan which may eventually work their way across the central and eastern Lake Erie basins later this evening into the overnight. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Thursday with highs generally in the mid-80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The latest guidance favors a dry Fourth of July for the area as upper-level ridging and high pressure build into the region. Precipitation chances will not be 0% for Friday afternoon and evening, particularly across Northwest Ohio, though feel comfortable in precluding mentionable PoPs at this time (less than 15%). Otherwise, the rest of the short term period will feature quiet weather and a warming trend as temperatures in the upper 80s on Friday increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The warmest day of the long term period will be Sunday with high temperatures in the lower 90s across the board and heat indices approaching the mid to upper 90s and perhaps briefly touching 100 degrees at times. As the low-levels begin to moisture ahead of an approaching cold front from the west, precipitation chances may begin to increase across Northwest Ohio, particularly Sunday evening and overnight. Precipitation chances will be the highest on Monday when scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front. Currently not outlooked for any strong to severe storms, but could see future inclusion if trends persist over the next few forecast iterations. Tuesday should see a reprieve from the rainy pattern as brief high pressure builds behind the front. However, the active pattern may return on Wednesday as another upper-level trough will move east through the Upper Midwest, introducing more opportunities for afternoon and evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR is expected to continue through the rest of the TAF period. The FEW/SCT clouds observed throughout the evening will continue around the 050-080 level. Added in a PROB30 line for KCLE and TAF sites to the west for thunderstorms as a boundary will move south after 18Z. Thunderstorms are low in confidence and expected to be fairly scattered. Probability for thunderstorms will go down as the sunsets after 23Z. There will be a wind shift behind the boundary with winds becoming north- northeasterly, but will still be light. Outlook...VFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday. Non- VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .MARINE... Relatively quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie for the foreseeable future. There may be a little bit of afternoon choppiness Wednesday through Friday with mild lake breeze development. Southwest flow of around 10-15 knots develops on Saturday and Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...23 MARINE...Saunders