FXUS61 KCLE 021715 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 115 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build northeast into the area today, but a weak surface trough just to the north will swing through tonight and keep this system south. This trough will remain as a boundary across the area on Thursday before high pressure builds in from the north. High pressure will shift east for Friday and a warm front will move through the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 530 AM Update... Fog, with some patchy dense fog, has developed over Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning. Have updated the forecast to capture this fog and have a Special Weather Statement until 9 AM. Previous Discussion... High pressure will try to enter from the southwest today. However, a minor trough will move through the Great Lakes region and the surface high may only truly enter the southern portion of the forecast area. Regardless, the air mass will be considerably drier than recent days with dew points in the 60s, which will both allow for more comfortable conditions but will also limit any rain chances with the trough passing to the north. There could be a couple of glancing showers in NW PA with the trough tonight, but any rainfall would be both brief and light. For Thursday, a boundary will be stretched across the forecast area and an upper trough will dip south from Canada into the eastern Great Lakes region. Overall, west to northwest flow with dew points in the 60s does not spark excitement for thunderstorms. However, getting some synoptic support into the region should allow for some isolated activity along this boundary for Thursday afternoon. Temperatures through the period will be near normal. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For Thursday night into Friday, high pressure will build south into the region and clear out any convective activity. As the surface high shifts east, a warm front will enter on Friday as the upper ridge axis approaches from the west. This feature could pop a couple of isolated storms with just enough lift and temperatures getting close to convective temperatures. Otherwise, the ridge roars in and squashes any remaining convection chances for the Independence Day holiday and into Saturday with large subsidence present over the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, starting with 80s before some spots seeing 90 degrees for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday continues to be the favorite for hot and stormy weather for the long term forecast period. However, the trend is that the next system is slowing down and there may be more storm coverage on Monday. For Sunday, the area will continue to be in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system with some better moisture advecting into the region. High temperatures should hit 90 degrees with dew points approaching the 70 degree mark. Even with the surface front and upper trough delayed until Monday, there should be diurnally-driven storm activity with good scattered coverage across the area. For Monday, the upper trough and surface front will move through the area and allow for some more organized storm activity and have 50-60 PoPs for the area. Temperatures will be tapered down with just 80s in the area, given convection and clouds in the region. For Tuesday and beyond, there is disparity on the evolution of this early week system with some guidance kicking it out of the region quickly and others slowing it down and allowing for continued rain and storm chances. Believe the answer may be in between and will have rain chances in the forecast for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... VFR is observed areawide and is expected to continue through the rest of the TAF period. FEW/SCT cumulus clouds expected during the afternoon today and Thursday with cloud bases generally in the 4-8kft range. Isolated showers and thunderstorms southwest of a Cleveland-Youngstown line is possible after 18Z Thursday. Outlook...VFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday. Non- VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .MARINE... Relatively quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie for the foreseeable future. There may be a little bit of afternoon choppiness Wednesday through Friday with mild lake breeze development. Southwest flow of around 10-15 knots develops on Saturday and Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders