FXUS61 KCAR 092014 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 414 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaches from the south tonight, passing northeast along the coast Saturday. High pressure builds in from the west on Sunday into Monday, sliding east of the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure located to the south of the area will move north tonight and Saturday along the coast. Precipitation will begin in the Central Highlands and Bangor region this evening and spread northeast. Rain continues throughout the day on Saturday with areas of fog possible, especially along the coast and over the waters. Farther north the fog is more likely to be patchy in nature. Guidance has the band of heaviest precipitation stalling out over the Bangor region and interior Downeast. Totals in these areas are likely to be in the 1-1.5" range, tapering off to less than 0.5" in the North Woods. Some isolated flooding is possible in areas that are typically vulnerable but given soil moisture is not excessively high and rivers are well below action stage did not feel a flood watch was warranted. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday Night...Low pressure system kicks off to our east into the Gulf of St Lawrence, continuing to strengthen. Rain will taper off from west to east in the evening, though there is a few hours of uncertainty on exact ending time. A cooler, drier airmass will work in from the northwest through the night, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s far north, to mid 40s Downeast. Sunday...Cool and breezy Sunday with winds from the northwest gusting to 30-35 mph. Highs in the low 50s to low 60s. Generally look for decreasing clouds, as an upper trough moving through from NW to SE in the morning could allow for isolated showers mainly in the north. Sunday Night...Clear in the evening but becoming partly cloudy late with increasing mid/high clouds from the NW. Cool with lows in the 30s. Just how cool it gets depends on how quickly the clouds move in. Monday...Partly to mostly cloudy with 15-30 percent chance of showers mainly in the north. Highs in the low to mid 60s, but some uncertainty in high temperatures depending on amount of clouds and shower activity. W/SW wind 10-15 mph. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday and Wednesday...Ridging appears to build over the area Tue/Wed, with probably the warmest temps we've seen so far this season, especially toward Wednesday. That said, there is still considerable spread in the models for the strength of the ridge and just how warm it gets. For now, going with around 80, with a uncertainty of 5-10 degrees either side of 80. Odds favor dry conditions Tue/Wed. Thursday to Saturday...Model agreement is quite poor. Most, but not all, models bring a backdoor cold front through Thu/Thu night with temperatures returning closer to average for Friday and Saturday. Could be some showers Thursday to Saturday, but that is uncertain too. Went with 20 to 40 PoPs to be safe. Overall, the upper level pattern is pretty weak and blocky, which makes for some uncertainty in how things will evolve. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions lower to IFR for southern terminals tonight as low clouds and rain move in. Conditions at northern terminals lower to IFR by early Saturday morning. Areas of fog likely for southern terminals, more patchy farther north. Light easterly winds tonight, becoming north 5-10 kts on Saturday. SHORT TERM: Saturday night...MVFR/IFR early...improving to VFR BGR/BHB, but perhaps remaining MVFR for northern terminals. NNW 5-15kts with gusts to 25kts. Sunday...VFR. NW 10-20kts gusting 25-30kts. Sunday night...VFR. NW 5-10kts. Monday-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Mainly S/SW/W wind 5-15kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the outer waters through 8 PM Saturday. E wind becoming NW 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain and fog expected to develop tonight and persist through Saturday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Conditions mainly below small craft through Wednesday. However, can't rule out low end small craft winds/seas Saturday night/Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Melanson Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Melanson/Foisy Marine...Melanson/Foisy