FXUS61 KCAR 070701 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 301 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Diurnally-driven afternoon convection today will bring measurable rainfall and an isolated tstm to northern portions of the area. 2) Unsettled weather pattern continues late Saturday through Tuesday, with more rain chances and below average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Diurnally-driven afternoon convection today will bring measurable rainfall and an isolated tstm to northern portions of the area. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure heading through New Brunswick this morning has dragged a cold front through the region early this morning. This will bring rain to an end this morning and with breaks in the cloud cover along with cold pool aloft moving over nrn areas, diurnally driven showers are expected to develop this afternoon. Given low freezing levels, steep lapse rates and some instability cannot rule out an isolated tstm producing graupel and/or small hail. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather pattern continues late Saturday through Tuesday, with more rain chances and below average temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Continued drought relief, as an unsettled weather pattern remains over the region thanks to a longwave trough remaining over the Eastern US and Eastern Canada. Saturday actually looks predominantly dry most of the day, but late in the day the next system approaches from the southwest. Precipitation chances increase later Saturday afternoon, first Downeast, and then over the rest of the area Saturday night into Sunday. Then it generally remains damp through Monday night or Tuesday, then finally some drying later today into Wednesday as the shortwave trough passes by. There's a lot of uncertainty still with details of precipitation timing and location from late Saturday through Tuesday. Certainly, it won't be raining everywhere this whole time. More likely, this timeframe will feature a few shots of rain with some breaks in between, and it's too early to provide exact timing. In general, from late Saturday to Tuesday, Downeast has the better odds at the heavier rain. For Downeast, most likely we are looking at 0.75 to 2 inches of rain for the whole late Saturday to Tuesday period, while areas further north/west are looking at 0.3 to 1.25 inches of rain. Temperatures generally look cooler than average, and although there could be a few thunderstorms, we are not concerned about anything widespread or strong. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rest of tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions early in showers and fog. With cold front having moved through all terminals, brief MVFR/VFR conditions expected as low cigs begin to scatter out. NW 5-10kts. Today...VFR Downeast terminals today. MVFR/VFR Aroostook terminals with a tstm possible at CAR and FVE between 17z-23z this afternoon. Given uncertainty have kept it as PROB30 group as opposed to TEMPO. W 5-10kts. Tonight...VFR southern terminals with VFR/MVFR north. NW 5kts. Friday...Mainly VFR. NW 5-10kts. Friday night...VFR with light wind. Saturday...VFR Saturday. S wind 10-15 kts. Saturday Night...MVFR and IFR developing from south to north, with possible rain. S wind 5-10 kts. Sunday through Monday...Generally MVFR/IFR with possible rain, but low confidence. S wind 10-15 kts Sunday shifting to the N Monday. && .MARINE... SCA conditions continue for intracoastal zone through 12z this morning and waters out to 25nm through 18z this afternoon. Seas drop below 5ft by this time and look to remain below SCA levels through the day Friday. Small craft winds and/or seas likely Saturday night and Sunday. Then a chance of small craftwinds/seas Monday night and Tuesday depending on the track of a low pressure system passing near or south of the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/TF AVIATION...21/TF