FXUS61 KBUF 051748

AFDBUF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Buffalo NY

148 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No major changes with this update.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Warmer today with increasing humidity. Scattered showers and

a few thunderstorms are expected across western NY.





2) The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Thursday and 

Friday, with unsettled weather continuing through the weekend. Any 

thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1...Warmer today with increasing humidity. 

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across 

western NY.



GOES water vapor imagery shows increasing moisture across the 

region as well as a few disturbances approaching from the south 

and west this afternoon. Cumulus clouds are rapidly developing 

in an area of instability across western NY. A south-southwest 

flow will continue to advect warm, moist air with PWATS climbing

to near 1.5" by this evening across western NY. The combination

of approaching large scale ascent and deep moisture, and 

daytime heating will support scattered showers and few 

thunderstorms across western NY through early evening. The flow 

aloft is weak and therefore the threat for severe thunderstorms 

is low, however localized heavy rain is possible through this 

evening. Drier air will continue to reside across the eastern 

Lake Ontario region this afternoon. 



Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will lessen across western NY 

tonight, however chances for showers and an isolated 

thunderstorm will increase across the Saint Lawrence Valley. 

  

Key Message 2...The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases 

Thursday and Friday, with unsettled weather continuing through the 

weekend. Any thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours.  



A deep southwest flow will remain across the region ahead of an 

approaching shortwave trough Thursday. Deep moisture remains across 

the region, with the axis of the highest PWATS (2") near the east 

coast. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to 

develop inland from the Lakes with locally heavy rainfall possible. 

While 0-6km shear is expected to increase to 25kts Thursday 

afternoon, mid-level lapse rates remain weak. The severe threat 

remains low. 



Another shortwave trough and approaching front are expected to 

approach the region Friday. Uncertainty in coverage and timing of 

showers and thunderstorms increases Friday. Cloud cover as well as 

showers in the morning could limit how much instability forms

through peak heating. If clearing occurs, another round of 

diurnally driven showers and a few thunderstorms are possible 

with greater chances inland from the Lakes. The muggy airmass 

will remain across the region and locally heavy rainfall can't 

be ruled out.



The weather will remain unsettled through the weekend as a trough 

flattens out across the forecast area. A cold front is expected to 

move across the region which will be a focus of showers and 

thunderstorms Saturday. Another front is expected to approach the 

region Sunday with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. While 

it doesn't look like a washout, daily chances of showers and

thunderstorms are expected.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions early this afternoon across area terminals with SCT-

BKN low-level clouds developing around 4-7 kft. Showers and isolated 

thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon into the early 

evening that could result in MVFR conditions near terminal sites, 

especially KJHW. Lingering showers may persist overnight with IFR 

conditions developing across the Southern Tier with low clouds 

expected near KJHW early Thursday morning. Otherwise, most terminals 

will remain VFR.  



Outlook...



Thursday Afternoon through Monday...Periodic showers and 

thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions are expected, especially 

each afternoon through early evening.



&&



.MARINE...

An approaching front and trough will bring increasing chances for 

showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week. Outside of a 

strong thunderstorm, light winds will support minimal wave action 

across the Lower Great Lakes through the start of the weekend.



&&



.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NY...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...HSK

AVIATION...Brothers

MARINE...HSK