FXUS61 KBTV 031901 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 301 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain for this afternoon and into the early evening. Cooler and drier weather will move in for Independence Day, with pleasant conditions expected. A warming trend starts on Saturday, with highs back into the 90s by early next week. Next week will see seasonable temperatures and chances for showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms are moving through central Vermont along the cold front, though storms are weakening as it moves into the already worked over areas in Eastern Vermont that saw convection earlier this morning. For the rest of today and into this evening, Hi-Res models continue to show a third round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the St Lawrence Valley this afternoon and push through into Vermont in the late afternoon into the early evening. This could impact outdoor activities around the region this afternoon. While this last round of storms may not become strong/severe, like was seen earlier today, they will still be capable of producing deadly lightning. If you have outdoor plans, please stay weather aware and follow the latest forecast updates. Tonight will see quieter and cooler weather behind the front, with temperatures in the 50s and some early morning fog in areas that saw rainfall during the day. Independence Day will see seasonably cool temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s with brisk northwest flow throughout the day. Friday night will be another cool and quiet night with just some increasing cloud cover in the pre-dawn hours limiting the chances of overnight fog. Saturday will see a return to warmer temperaturewise and upper level ridge crests over the region, bringing high temperaturewise back into the 80s. Southerly flow will bring a push of slightly more humid air Saturday afternoon as dew points push back into the upper 50s. This along with some mid level moisture that will keep cloud cover over the region Saturday night will keep over night lows warm, in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday will bring the hottest day of the period, with temperatures in the mid 90s and dew points in the 60s. While this will continue our run of seeing a day of 90s each week, right now, models are leaning to this day not being as impactful as prior 90 degree days. Still, on the back end of a Holiday weekend, people should take extra caution when doing outdoor activities and stay hydrated. While Sunday looks to be mainly dry, a boundary settles in just north of the International Boarder, which could bring an afternoon shower or two across the northern counties. A thunderstorm cannot also be ruled out. Sunday night will be warm again with overnight lows in the 60s. The boundary still remain to the north of the area, so chances for showers along the International Boarder continue. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...For next week, a cold front finally pushes through Monday afternoon, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs on Monday could tough the low 90s again, so this looks to be the next best day for impactful convection. Beyond this, things look to be unsettled as our region comes under the influence of a long wave trough. This will bring highs in the low to mid 80s and chances for afternoon convection each day. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms have the potential to briefly cause IFR visibilities and bring winds up to 30KTs. These showers will end late this evening and VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the rest of the period. Winds will become northwesterly this afternoon as a cold front moves through. They will continue that way through tomorrow, though they will go relatively calm tonight in a few areas. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Myskowski