FXUS61 KBTV 020627

AFDBTV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

227 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Conditions will trend dry for Wednesday. A larger upper level 

low will shift southeast on Thursday, with a sharper cold front 

that will produce additional showers and thunderstorms late 

Thursday morning into the evening. Colder air will arrive for 

Thursday night. July 4th will open to cool conditions with 

pleasant afternoon conditions. During the weekend, temperatures 

will quickly climb towards the 90s again early next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 156 AM EDT Wednesday...Drier weather is expected today 

and tonight with a cooler and drier air mass in place with 

surface high pressure ridging into the area from Canada. 

Temperatures will still be quite warm today with decent amount 

of sunshine helping to push maximum temperatures back into the 

80s areawide. Minimum temperatures overnight will dip into the 

60s across northern New York and Vermont. Thursday will bring 

the next chance for showers and possible thunderstorms as an 

upper level trough, vorticity advection and a surface cold front

are all expected to cross the area. Showers with embedded 

thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, especially during the 

afternoon. SPC has placed most of our forecast area under a 

marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Will need to

monitor potential for strong to severe storms. Modest shear and

instability will exist as a cold front moves southeastward 

across our area, and will have a decent jet structure overhead. 

Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary 

threats. Based on current projected timing of frontal passage, 

area with best chance at stronger storms will be from the 

Adirondacks eastward across Vermont. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 156 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper level low will continue 

to pull northeastward Thursday night into Friday, bringing a few

additional chances for showers and cooler conditions by the end

of the week. Shower activity will begin to dwindle Thursday 

night with the loss of diurnal heating. The overnight lows will 

be much cooler Thursday night compared to previous days, with 

temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to upper 50s.



A few showers will be possible on Independence Day, primarily 

across the Northeast Kingdom as the upper level low pulls away. 

Outside of some isolated shower chances, a relatively dry and 

pleasant day is in store, with partly sunny skies by the 

afternoon. The day will start off on the cool side, but high 

temperatures look to warm into the 70s, with dewpoints in the 

50s making it feel quite comfortable. Another cool night is 

expected overnight Friday, with temperatures dropping into the 

upper 40s and 50s again.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 156 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will nose into the 

Northeast for the first half of the weekend, with a warming 

temperatures trend expected. Dry and seasonable conditions can 

be expected during the day Saturday, with highs climbing into 

the 80s. After a warm and muggy night, high temperatures during 

the day Sunday will be even warmer, climbing into the upper 80s 

and low 90s. A cold front will start to approach the region from

the north, although there is still some uncertainty as to how 

quickly it will arrive, which may impact temperatures Sunday 

afternoon especially near the border. The front looks to be slow

to progress, with chances for showers and thunderstorms through

the beginning of next week until it finally pushes southward 

late Monday or Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Through 06Z Thursday...Patchy fog development is expected 

towards early morning, with the most widespread fog expected in 

the valleys of eastern Vermont. For now have only included fog 

in my TAFs at RUT and EFK. However, it cannot be completely 

ruled out at the rest of the terminals. The fog will lift 

quickly after sunrise and VFR conditions are expected to prevail

for the rest of the day. Winds light and terrain driven 

overnight before they increase during the daytime hours.



Outlook...



Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.

Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.



&&



.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...None.

NY...None.



&&



$$

SYNOPSIS...Neiles

NEAR TERM...Neiles

SHORT TERM...Kremer

LONG TERM...Kremer

AVIATION...Neiles