FXUS61 KBGM 271734 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 134 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday. A low pressure system then moves in and brings widespread rain to the region Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The region will see subfreezing temperatures once again tonight. Clear skies and light winds will lead to freezing fog/low stratus late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Model soundings do not have as much of an inversion as seen for last night but HREF probabilities support adding some patchy fog in the forecast. Plus, conditions will be quite similar, so the end result is expected to be the same. If fog does develop, it will slowly clear out during the morning hours. High pressure will remain in place for Tuesday. Easterly flow will lead to slightly warm conditions as temperatures will climb into the 50s across the region. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. With clear skies and light winds expected again Tuesday night, some fog may be possible in the lower elevations. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will hang on through Wednesday and keep rain showers along the coast as a weak system moves over the Atlantic. Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig with a surface low developing over the lower Mississippi River Valley. Skies will start out sunny but cloud cover will gradually increase from the south as the low drifts into the Southeast. Temperatures will climb into the 50s. Overnight, showers will spread from south to north as this system then turns northward. Under the cloud cover, temperatures will only fall into the 30s and 40s. Rain becomes more widespread Thursday as this low moves into the Northeast. Models show this system moving in line with what is currently Hurricane Melissa. The two systems are expected to stay separated and stay organized. Models are showing a dry slot that pushes into NEPA and parts of NY late Thursday. This may result in a break from the rain until the center of the low moves into the area and wraparound moisture supports showers once again overnight. Thursday's highs will be in the 50s and low only in the 40s. PWATs are only 1.25" or less with higher values near the coast and over eastern NY. Some guidance is showing limited instability so isolated heavier showers/t-storms may be possible, but generally, this will be a synoptic event with steady rain over a long period of time. Despite vegetation becoming dormant, drought conditions persist across the region. Concerns for flooding are low as the current antecedent conditions should be able to handle the rainfall. If there is one area to monitor, it would likely be the Catskills where some models have higher PWATs and upslope flow could locally enhance rainfall totals. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned system will continue to drift northward Friday but wraparound moisture will keep showers present through at least the overnight hours. Showers may linger longer over north-central NY early Saturday. Otherwise, spotty showers are then expected throughout the weekend thanks to a combination of lake effect showers and weak disturbances passing through. Following the low pressure system, heights fall and cooler air drifts south over the Northeast leading to a slight cooling trend into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and mostly VFR conditions are expected. The only exception will be valley fog that could bring potential VLIFR conditions to ELM again early Tuesday morning. Any fog should lift between 14-15Z tomorrow and then VFR thereafter. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon throughWednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday Night through Saturday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...BJG/BTL LONG TERM...BJG/BTL AVIATION...ES/MPK