FXUS61 KBGM 271731 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 131 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control through Wednesday, which will bring dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures. A low pressure system will then move in and bring widespread rain to the region late this week, especially on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 300 AM Update: With clear skies, light winds, and a cool airmass in place, this morning will start off quite chilly with lows in the 20s for the large majority of the area and perhaps a few upper teens in some of the usual colder spots. Temperatures will rebound somewhat today, but will still be a bit below normal for this time of the year (highs expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s). Mostly sunny skies are expected with high pressure in control. Then very similar conditions to early this morning are expected tonight with lows in the 20s for most of the area and mostly clear skies. Tuesday will be another day with mostly sunny skies as high pressure remains in control. Temperatures will be slightly warmer (near-normal for this time of the year), with highs in the 50s for the majority of the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 300 AM Update: Dry conditions are expected to remain in place through Wednesday as high pressure remains in control for one more day. Higher clouds will increase from the south later in the day ahead of the next low pressure system to impact the area. Model guidance continues to be in agreement that a deepening area of low pressure along with plenty of moisture will move northward from the Southeast U.S. on Thursday. This will result in a steady rainfall across the area late Wednesday night through Thursday. PWATs will also be around 1.00" or higher, especially across areas east of I-81. Most of the area remains in a rainfall deficit with drought conditions present across some areas. As a result, this soaking rainfall should actually be beneficial. That being said, with vegetation starting to become dormant and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, some localized urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible. A brief wintry mix of rain and snow may be possible at the onset of precipitation Wednesday night across parts of Oneida County and some of the highest elevations of the Catskills, but otherwise this will likely be a rain event. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 300 AM Update: Conditions remain unsettled through the long term period with wraparound moisture from the departing storm system from Thursday and multiple additional shortwaves moving through. While the NBM (National Blend of Models) advertises likely PoPs throughout most of this period, it is certainly possible (if not likely), that there will be some mainly dry periods as well. It is just too far out to pinpoint when and where those drier periods may be. Either way, it will remain cool and mainly cloudy during this period with highs only in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and mostly VFR conditions are expected. The only exception will be valley fog that could bring potential VLIFR conditions to ELM again early Tuesday morning. Any fog should lift between 14-15Z tomorrow and then VFR thereafter. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday Night through Saturday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...ES/MPK