FXUS61 KBGM 270552 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 152 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place through the first half of the week, keeping conditions dry but also fairly cool. A low pressure system will then move in and bring widespread rain to the region late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Temperatures will fall below freezing tonight, which is the first widespread freeze across the region for the fall season. While the growing season is over, frost is likely. In addition, patchy fog/freezing fog will be possible, especially for locations in west- central NY. Surface high pressure and a cooler air mass will remain in place to start the work week. Temperatures Monday and Monday night will nearly be identical to today as highs will be in the 40s and 50s and lows fall below freezing once again. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... During the short term period, surface high pressure will keep a weak coastal low far off the coast while another low develops over the Mississippi Valley associated with a trough digging over the Central US. Conditions will remain quiet through Wednesday but as the latter system moves eastward, rain will begin to move in from the south Wednesday night. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer during this forecast period. Highs will be in the 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Under clear skies and the cooler airmass, temperatures will fall below freezing Tuesday night. Under increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching low, temperatures Wednesday night will generally be around or above freezing. If precipitation were to move in quicker that forecasted, then wintry precipitation would be possible given the cooler temperatures. For now, this forecast keeps the main p-type as rain with a slight chance for snow in far northern Oneida County. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain will gradually become more widespread Thursday as the low moves into the Northeast. Moisture transport will be off the Atlantic but could be further enhanced by what is currently Hurricane Melissa. There is uncertainty on how these systems may interact, but added moisture would help increase rainfall amounts, which would be welcomed. Wraparound moisture will keep showers going through at least Friday. Some of the latest guidance is starting to lift the system out by Friday night which would be more favorable for Halloween festivities. This forecast followed NBM guidance which does keep chances fairly high into the weekend. Models do show drier air moving in behind this system though another upper trough will move across the Eastern US for part of the weekend and support some spotty showers. Temperatures will be seasonable and even slightly below normal throughout the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected much of the time through the TAF forecast. With ELM dropping below the crossover temperature with light winds in place, LIFR fog is expected, generally after 06Z. While there was more sunshine in place today leading to drier conditions, some patchy fog and associated restrictions is possible at ITH and BGM as well, although confidence is not high. After the morning fog clears, it will be VFR through the rest of the forecast with light winds mainly out of the NE as high pressure will be centered off to our north. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday Night through Friday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...DK/ES