FXUS61 KBGM 220553 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 153 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cloud cover was increased for all of CNY into the Southern Tier as the clouds have been slow to scatter out. SPC's marginal risk was expanded northward to near the NY/PA border Sunday with a sliver of slight risk introduced in far southern Luzerne county. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A clipper system moving through Sunday brings steady rain in Central New York and potential thunderstorms to Northeast Pennsylvania, some of which could contain gusty winds. 2) An active pattern with frequent clipper systems next week, bringing light precipitation chances and frequent temperature swings. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A clipper system moves through late tonight into Sunday with a warm front lifting into CNY. Temperatures overnight with the warm front lifting in will be above freezing region wide, forecast soundings also showing warm air aloft so the precipitation type is expected to be rain for the area overnight. The Southern Tier and southward is in the warm sector of the low. Forecast soundings and mid and upper level RH fields show that there will be plenty of clouds. This will limit the heating for most of the area but the best chance for clearing will be in southern NEPA. It will be hard to overcome the low level inversion in the warm sector for our area but elevated instability will still lead to thunderstorms for most of NEPA in the late afternoon. Mid level lapse rates are around 6.5 C/km and 7.5 C/km. With the 0-6 km shear around 55 to 60 knots, some larger hail is possible in the stronger storms with elevated CAPE getting up around 500-1000 J/kg. Wind threat is uncertain as that would be dependent on the size of the cold pool that forms in the storm to break through the stable layer or if there could be enough sun for storms to be more surface based. Current SPC outlook is for a marginal risk across far southern Luzerne county. KEY MESSAGE 2... With the strong ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest slowly building into the high plains next week, we will be on the NE edge of the ridge with frequent 500 mb shortwaves propagating around the northern edge of the ridge. Given the cooler temperatures in New England under a trough, we could see a few snow flakes mix in at times, especially in the higher elevations of CNY and Catskills during the overnight hours with any of these shortwaves. For the most part, given the higher sun angle and most of the precipitation with these shortwaves falling on the warm air advection side of the lows, precipitation types should be mostly rain. There is low potential for lake effect snow Monday night with 850 mb temps falling to <-10C, and then again Friday into Saturday as GEFS and EPS ensemble probabilities of less than -10C at 850 get over 50 to 75% for CNY into the Tug Hill. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Spotty showers will continue early this morning with a combination of rain and snow. There will be a brief lull in precipitation before a frontal system moves in from the north with widespread rain widespread rain. Ceilings will fall into Fuel Alt/MVFR prior by late morning at the Central NY terminals. Ceilings will continue to fall throughout the day and eventually becoming IFR/LIFR. SYR and RME will improve back to at least Fuel Alt after 00z Monday. AVP will also see ceilings fall but not until later in the day. IFR restrictions are expected there as well beginning in the evening. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms for AVP this afternoon. At all terminals, visibilities may also be reduced at times. Depending on how quickly the precipitation moves out, there may be a transition to snow at ITH, ELM, and BGMbut confidence was too low to include snow at this time. Southerly winds will remain breezy through the daytime hours with gusts around 15 kts. As the front drops south, winds will become more northerly with sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is possible at all terminals early this morning. At 2000 ft AGL, winds will be out of the southeast and then south-southwest with speeds of 35 to 40 kts. Outlook: Monday through Tuesday...High pressure building in across the Northeast with mainly VFR conditions; Possible restrictions with morning fog. Wednesday...Cold front begins to move in from the north with rain and snow showers as well as potential restrictions. Thursday... Warm front pushes up from the southwest with rainshowers and restrictions possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG AVIATION...BTL