FXUS61 KBGM 030547 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 147 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, bringing a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms may become severe tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. High pressure moves in behind the front, bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 230 PM Forecast... Gorgeous day across the region today with mostly sunny skies and low humidity. Thursday will see a return of active weather as a cold front drops down from Canada. Upper trough and embedded shortwave will drop into the region tomorrow afternoon. The severe thunderstorm potential has increased some with the 12Z suite of model guidance. Main limiting factor tomorrow will be possible early morning showers and clouds that will likely limit instability for portions of the region. However, further south and east across the Southern Tier and into NE PA, should see stronger instability with CAPE values increasing to about 1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. A strong ribbon of 40-50kt 0-6km bulk shear also moves in during the afternoon hours across the Twin Tiers. CAMs are now focusing thunderstorm development across the Southern Tier during the early afternoon hours and then dropping southeast throughout the afternoon and evening into NE PA. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk across our entire western CWA and has now introduced a slight risk for severe weather across the southeastern half of the CWA. The front exits the region tomorrow evening and dry high pressure will build in behind the front, setting the stage for a beautiful 4th of July. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update... Cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected on the 4th of July with northwest flow in place. Skies will be mostly sunny with high pressure building overhead. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the region. Clear skies will continue through the overnight period along with cool temperatures. Around the time of firework displays Friday evening (9/10 pm), temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 50s, with a few spots potentially falling into the upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 235 PM Update... High pressure is centered over the region on Saturday as an upper level ridge starts to build in. Models are indicating some moisture embedded in the ridge, but forecast model soundings are very dry aloft, so left out any mention of showers, but could see some fair weather Cu develop in the afternoon that is well capped. Winds shift southwest as the ridge moves in, allowing temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s and humidity will increase under SW flow. Pattern continues into Sunday with yet another warm and dry day expected, and with humidity continuing to increase, there could be some urban areas that approach or exceed Heat Advisory Criteria (HI greater or equal to 95F in NY, 100F in PA). Strong southwesterly flow will send temperatures climb into the mid 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday. Frontal system will bring a chance of showers and Thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday. Cool temperatures follow on Tuesday bringing highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions tonight across the area with high pressure in place. Clouds and rain showers will move in from the west, limiting fog development but could put tempo MVFR conditions at SYR and RME just before sunrise. Thunderstorms develop late this morning into the afternoon hours, with PROB30 groups at ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP. BGM and AVP have the best chance to see storms as a cold front will move through the area closer to peak heating than at ELM and ITH. MVFR conditions are currently forecast, but a stronger cell could drop visby down to IFR for a brief period. Thunderstorms dissipate by early evening, with VFR conditions in place through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC/MPK SHORT TERM...ES/MPK LONG TERM...ES/MPK AVIATION...JTC