FXUS61 KBGM 021206 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 806 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings sunny skies and dry weather to the region today. Another cold front passes through the area Thursday, bringing a chance for scattered showers and storms. High pressure moves in behind the front, bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 200 AM Forecast... A brief period of quiet weather is expected today into Thursday as a mid level ridge builds into the region. NW flow behind the exiting cold front will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s today. Dewpoint values will be in the upper 50s, so it will feel much nicer than the past couple of days. This pattern continues into the overnight hours, with quiet conditions and temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. Thursday will see a return of active weather as the mid-level ridge weakens and a shortwave dives into the area from the Great Lakes. The setup remains somewhat unclear as to severe storm development. A strong ribbon of 40-50kt 0-6km bulk shear moves in during the afternoon hours across the Twin Tiers. Instability remains muddled as morning clouds and showers could limit CAPE development, with CAMs showing a wide range of values between 800 and 2000 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates between 5.5C and 6.5C move into the area during the afternoon, but their location remains uncertain, with some guidance showing them across the western portion of the CWA, while others have them across the east. If we can get CAPE above 1000 j/kg, the strong shear and lapse rates should allow for a few storms to produce damaging winds and hail. Because the ingredients are present, but timing and location remains unclear, SPC has placed a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the area. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 240 AM Update... Cooler temperatures settle in Thursday night behind the front with northwest flow in place. Skies will also clear as the shortwave moves east and high pressure builds back into the region. Light winds and clear skies will help temperatures fall into the low to mid 50s overnight. High pressure remains in control for the 4th of July with dry and sunny conditions expected. Afternoon temperatures will be comfortable as northwest flow holds. Highs will range in the low to mid 70s across the region. Clear skies will continue through the overnight period along with cool temperatures. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s, with a few spots potentially falling into the upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 240 AM Update... High pressure is centered over the region on Saturday as an upper level ridge starts to build in. GFS has some moisture embedded in the ridge, but conditions may be too dry for anything to materialize. This may manifest in some clouds overhead, but overall Saturday will be dry. Winds shift southwest as the ridge moves in allowing temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s. Pattern continues into Sunday with yet another warm and dry day expected. Strong southwesterly flow will help temperatures climb into the mid 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday. Frontal system will bring a chance of showers and Thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday. Cool temperatures follow on Tuesday bringing highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Valley fog should mix out by mid morning. High pressure brings VFR conditions into the overnight hours for all terminals. ELM may see another round of IFR/LIFR restrictions with valley fog forming again, but confidence was not high enough to include it in this TAF set. Outlook... Thursday... Mainly VFR, a brief shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out in the afternoon/evening hours at any site with associated brief MVFR/IFR restrictions. Thursday night through Sunday... Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...JTC