FXUS61 KBGM 021135 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 635 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Otsego, Madison, Chenango, and Oneida Counties were appended to the ongoing Cold Weather Advisory up to 10 AM this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold start today, then dry and slightly milder conditions before lake effect snow returns midweek over north central NY. 2) A clipper system Friday into Saturday may bring accumulating snow and another brief shot of arctic cold. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold start to this morning as mostly clear skies allowed temperatures to fall near zero. For some of Central New York east of I-81 where the sky remained clear all night, temperatures have even hit the teens below zero and thus Otsego, Chenango, Madison, and Oneida Counties were appended to the Cold Weather Advisory that was already in effect for Delaware, Sullivan, Wayne, Pike, Luzerne, and Lackawanna Counties. Brief ridge builds in today allowing temperatures to recover with highs in the low to mid 20s. High pressure keeps conditions dry over the region along with partly sunny skies. As the ridge pushes east on Tuesday, westerly flow follows along lake effect snow showers over north central NY. A short wave pushes into the region by Wednesday morning along with a cold front. This will shift winds to the Northwest and allow showers to advance into central NY. Lake effect is expected to continue into Thursday night with light accumulations, mainly over north central NY. KEY MESSAGE 2... Flow shifts southwest Friday ahead of an incoming clipper system, cutting off any lingering lake effect. This system is expected to track over our region Friday into Saturday bringing the potential to see accumulating snowfall. As this disturbance moves into our region, it also brings another shot of arctic cold. Temperatures at 850 mb are expected to range -24C to -26C. This will keep snow ratios rather high and has the potential to increase accumulations, but it is still not certain at this time how much. Good news is this burst of cold air is only expected to last a couple of days at most as models show a ridge attempting to build in early next week. Despite this the weekend will again experience temperatures near zero with potential for more cold weather headlines. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions continue at ELM, RME and SYR at this time (11z). A band of MVFR/IFR clouds has developed as expected over Central NY at this time (11z) and this also has snow flurries associated with it...especially at ITH and BGM. RME is now forecast to just see a short period of MVFR clouds and perhaps vsbys, mainly through the mid morning hours, confidence remains on the low side on if this additional cloud band will develop here. SYR should settle into MVFR/MVFR fuel alternate CIGs around 12z this morning, through early this evening. ITH and BGM will have clouds filling back in with 008-020ft CIGs through about 15-18z today at these two sites, before becoming VFR in the afternoon and evening. ELM is expected to remain VFR for the entire taf period based on the latest data. AVP should become VFR by mid to late morning and remain VFR for the rest of the taf period. Surface winds will be NW at 5-15 kts today, becoming light and variable under 5 kts after sunset into tonight. Outlook... Tuesday: Stratus clouds redevelop and expand, with widespread MVFR CIGs likely areawide. Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning: Lingering MVFR stratus clouds around the region. A few snow showers possible across Central NY. Wednesday Afternoon: Period of VFR possible at ELM, BGM and AVP...better chance for BKN MVFR CIGs to remain at ITH, SYR and RME in the cold NW flow. Wednesday Night and Thursday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to occasional lake effect snow showers at SYR and RME. Friday...Restrictions likely with a system bringing periods of snow, transitioning to snow showers and blowing snow Friday night. Squalls possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040- 044-047-048-072. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ009- 036-037-045-046-057-062. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES/MDP AVIATION...MJM