FXUS61 KBGM 020724 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 224 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes made this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold start today, then dry and slightly milder conditions before lake effect snow returns midweek over north central NY. 2) A clipper system Friday into Saturday may bring accumulating snow and another brief shot of arctic cold. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold start to this morning as mostly clear skies allowed temperatures to fall near zero. Brief ridge builds in today allowing temperatures to recover with highs in the low to mid 20s. High pressure keeps conditions dry over the region along with partly sunny skies. As the ridge pushes east on Tuesday, westerly flow follows along lake effect snow showers over north central NY. A short wave pushes into the region by Wednesday morning along with a cold front. This will shift winds to the Northwest and allow showers to advance into central NY. Lake effect is expected to continue into Thursday night with light accumulations, mainly over north central NY. KEY MESSAGE 2... Flow shifts southwest Friday ahead of an incoming clipper system, cutting off any lingering lake effect. This system is expected to track over our region Friday into Saturday bringing the potential to see accumulating snowfall. As this disturbance moves into our region, it also brings another shot of arctic cold. Temperatures at 850 mb are expected to range -24C to -26C. This will keep snow ratios rather high and has the potential to increase accumulations, but it is still not certain at this time how much. Good news is this burst of cold air is only expected to last a couple of days at most as models show a ridge attempting to build in early next week. Despite this the weekend will again experience temperatures near zero with potential for more cold weather headlines. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Skies have cleared for many locations early this morning, with VFR conditions for all of our NY TAF sites currently. A band of lingering MVFR clouds extends from east of BGM down south to AVP, with AVP expected to remain MVFR until about 08z early this morning. Indications are that another band of MVFR/IFR clouds will develop over Central NY toward daybreak (10-12z) and this could also have some freezing fog, mist and/or snow flurries associated with it...especially at SYR and RME. RME remains MVFR through about 17-18z today, while SYR could stay MVFR fuel alt until later this afternoon (22z). Tempo for possible IFR vsby restrictions was added for these two sites between 11-14z this morning. Confidence overall is low to moderate on exactly where this rather narrow band of MVFR/borderline IFR clouds will develop and move through the day. ITH and BGM should see the clouds fill back in with 010-020ft CIGs between about 12-18z today at these two sites, before becoming VFR in the afternoon and evening. ELM is expected to remain VFR for the entire taf period based on the latest data. AVP should become VFR before sunrise and remain VFR for the rest of the taf period. There is some sporadic LLWS at AVP and possible at ELM over the next several hours, with winds at 2k ft agl out of the NW at 35 kts...the LLWS lasts longest at AVP, until around 12z this morning. Surface winds will be NW at 5-15 kts today, becoming light and variable under 5 kts after sunset into tonight. Outlook... Late Tonight Through Tuesday: Stratus clouds redevelop and expand, with widespread MVFR CIGs likely areawide. Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning: Lingering MVFR stratus clouds around the region. A few snow showers possible across Central NY. Wednesday Afternoon: Period of VFR possible at ELM, BGM andAVP...better chance for BKN MVFR CIGs to remain at ITH, SYR and RME in the cold NW flow. Wednesday Night and Thursday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to occasional lake effect snow showers at SYR and RME. Friday...Restrictions likely with a system bringing periods of snow, transitioning to snow showers and blowing snow Friday night. Squalls possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040- 044-047-048-072. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ057- 062. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES AVIATION...MJM/MWG