FXUS61 KBGM 020635 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 235 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings sunny skies and dry weather to the region today. Another cold front passes through the area Thursday, bringing a chance for scattered showers and storms. High pressure moves in behind the front, bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 200 AM Forecast... A brief period of quiet weather is expected Today into Thursday as a mid level ridge builds into the region. NW flow behind the exiting cold front will keep temperatures today in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s so it will feel much nicer than the past couple of days. This pattern continues into the overnight hours, with quiet conditions and temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. Thursday will see a return of active weather as the mid-level ridge weakens and a shortwave dives into the area from the Great Lakes. The setup remains somewhat unclear as to severe storm development. A a strong ribbon of 40-50kt 0-6km bulk shear moves in during the afternoon hours across the Twin Tiers. Instability remains muddled as morning clouds and showers could limit CAPE development, with CAMs showing a wide range of values between 800 and 2000 j/kg. Mid-level lapse rates between 5.5C and 6.5C move into the area during the afternoon, but their location remains uncertain, with some guidance showing them across the western portion of the CWA, while others have them across the east. If we can get CAPE above 1000 j/kg, the strong shear and lapse rates should allow for a few storms to produce damaging winds and hail. Because the ingredients are present but timing and location remains unclear, SPC has placed a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the area. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop. Not much has changed regarding the modeled environment. CAPE values near 1,000 J/KG coupled with steep low level lapse rates and dry mid- levels look somewhat favorable for the possibility of a few strong to damaging wind gusts. Highs look slightly cooler Thursday and Friday with a reinforcing cool shot coming through with lows in the 50's and 60's. The forth of July still looks to be a dry one as high pressure builds into the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... One more dry day should occur Saturday over the region under high pressure. However, the high pressure looks to slide east of the region Sunday resulting in a warm and moist return flow. Ensemble guidance has trended slower with the next cold front which increases the confidence with warmer highs getting close to 90 by Sunday. The front may get close enough by Monday for a few thunderstorms during peak heating hours. With the added touch of humidity, heat index values in CNY look to be around 95 degrees Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Clouds will clear to the east tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. Fog has developed at ELM and LIFR conditions will continue through 13z at the terminal. ITH and RME may see fog development as well as rain passed through the terminals this afternoon. Guidance is not showing much development, but given the rain, light winds and high pressure building in, periods of MVFR restrictions are not out of the question tonight. VFR conditions will be present at all terminals from mid-morning through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Wednesday night ...Mainly VFR, except pre- dawn valley fog possible especially KELM. Thursday... Mainly VFR, a brief shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out in the afternoon/evening hours atany site. Thursday night through Sunday... Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...JTC