FXUS21 KWNC 061829

PMDTHR

US Hazards Outlook

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

300 PM EDT May 06 2026



SYNOPSIS: A quick chance of extreme heat remains possible across parts of the 

Southern and Central Plains at the end of week-1 and into early week-2. A risk 

of high winds, in the same vicinity, elevates wildfire risks across the area. 

Along the West Coast, high winds remain possible before mid-level high pressure 

moves away from the interior West by the middle of week-2.



HAZARDS



Slight risk of extreme heat for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, 

Thu, May 14.



Slight risk of high winds for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, 

Thu-Fri, May 14-15.



Slight risk of high winds for portions of coastal California and Oregon, 

Thu-Fri, May 14-15.



DETAILED SUMMARY



FOR SATURDAY MAY 09 - WEDNESDAY MAY 13: 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



FOR THURSDAY MAY 14 - WEDNESDAY MAY 20: The 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian 

ensembles depict a mid-level ridge over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) 

early in week-2. This ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward into the 

central and eastern CONUS with time. Ahead of this ridge, southerly flow is 

forecast into parts of the Central and Southern Plains briefly increasing 

chances for extreme heat in parts of this region. Overall, the strongest 

chances for extreme heat are now favored during week-1 but some lingering 

chances remain as a frontal system pushes into the Plains. Probabilistic heat 

tools favor 20-40% chances of major heat risk across an area of the Southern 

and Central Plains. These probabilities are reduced compared to yesterday. 

Similarly, the GEFS and ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tools also forecast lower 

chances for temperatures to approach hazardous criteria. Therefore, the 

moderate risk of extreme heat is discontinued today, while a slight risk of 

extreme heat remains forecast for parts of the Central and Southern Plains for 

May 14. Temperatures across the West and Plains, are favored to remain above 

normal throughout the week-2 period, however, at this time temperatures do not 

seem likely to reach extreme heat criteria. 







The anomalous warmth forecast across the West favors thermal low development 

and an increased pressure gradient along parts of the West Coast. The 

uncalibrated 0z GEFS and ECMWF ensembles both show enhanced probabilities for 

wind speeds above 25-mph across coastal portions of northern California and 

Oregon early in week-2, and this signal is also apparent in the PETs. 

Therefore, a slight risk of high winds is posted across these areas, May 14-15. 

Models also depict elevated chances for gusty winds across the south-central 

CONUS, and this is particularly concerning given the extreme heat potential 

combined with dry soils contributing to an enhanced wildfire threat. This 

supports a slight risk of high winds across portions of the Central and 

Southern Plains, May 14-15.







Above normal precipitation is likely for week-2 across much of the Southern 

Plains. PETs from the GEFS and ECENS show enhanced chances for precipitation 

exceeding the 85th climatological percentile for much of the period across this 

region. However, the uncalibrated precipitation guidance probabilities from the 

GEFS along with analog guidance is cautionary. Further, much of this area 

remains in at least severe drought and any precipitation would likely be 

beneficial. Therefore, no corresponding hazard is posted but will continue to 

be monitored.







By the middle of week-2, the means of the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian 

ensembles depict a mid-level trough developing near the West Coast while 

mid-level ridging moves eastward over the Plains. This could set up a more 

active pattern for the end of week-2 over the CONUS. However, uncertainty is 

particularly high by the middle of the period and no corresponding hazards are 

posted at this time, but will be monitored.







In Alaska, the typical peak of the river ice breakup season is approaching, and 

ice jam flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice as 

conditions on frozen rivers can change quickly. Please check with the Alaska 

Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions and advisories.



FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt 



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