FXUS21 KWNC 031806

PMDTHR

US Hazards Outlook

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

300 PM EDT July 03 2025



SYNOPSIS: An increased risk for extreme heat is forecast across the West at the 

beginning of week-2, but chances decrease later in the outlook period as the 

mid-level ridge of high pressure weakens. Only a slight risk of heavy 

precipitation is posted for southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico 

due to diverging model solutions. On July 11 and 12, a slow-moving front is 

forecast to be the focus for thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall from the 

Mid-Atlantic west to the Tennessee Valley. 



HAZARDS



Moderate risk of extreme heat for the San Joaquin Valley of California, Fri, 

Jul 11. 



Slight risk of extreme heat for parts of the West, Fri-Sat, Jul 11-12. 



Slight risk of heavy precipitation for southeastern Arizona and southwestern 

New Mexico, Fri-Thu, Jul 11-17. 



Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the eastern U.S., Fri-Sat, Jul 

11-12. 



DETAILED SUMMARY



FOR SUNDAY JULY 06 - THURSDAY JULY 10: 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



FOR FRIDAY JULY 11 - THURSDAY JULY 17: The GEFS and ECENS depict a 500-hPa 

ridge strengthening over the West during the early to middle part of next week. 

These ensemble mean solutions remain consistent that this ridge peaks in 

strength on day 7 (July 10) when 500-hPa heights reach 597-dam across southern 

California and the Southwest. Thereafter, a shortwave trough is expected to 

move inland from the northeastern Pacific and suppress the longwave ridge over 

the West. A moderate risk of extreme heat, valid July 11, is only posted for 

the San Joaquin Valley where the GEFS and ECMWF Probabilistic Extremes Tools 

(PETs) have near a 40 percent chance of maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th 

percentile and 100 degrees F. The moderate risk was discontinued for the Desert 

Southwest due to slightly lower 500-hPa heights among the ensemble means by 

July 11 and less than a 40 percent chance that maximum temperatures reach 110 

degrees F according to the PETs. Although above-normal temperatures are likely 

to persist throughout much of the West through the end of week-2, a slight risk 

of extreme heat is valid only through July 12 as chances that maximum 

temperatures reach extreme heat thresholds decrease to below 20 percent. The 

anomalous warmth during mid-July would lead to the additional drying of fuels 

and elevate the wildfire danger across the interior Pacific Northwest and 

northern Intermountain West. 







Following Hurricane Flossie in the East Pacific, the National Hurricane Center 

states that there is a 80 percent chance of another tropical cyclone (TC) 

forming in the East Pacific during the next week. Many of the GEFS ensemble 

members have this potential TC taking a northwest track which could eventually 

lead to a surge of enhanced low to mid-level moisture northward from the Gulf 

of California into the Desert Southwest. However, the ECENS ensemble members 

are generally weaker with any TC that develops and favor a more westward track 

with enhanced moisture less likely to reach the Desert Southwest. Based on the 

wetter GEFS PET and also its more favorable 500-hPa ridge axis closer to the 

Four Corners, a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for parts of 

Arizona and New Mexico for all of week-2. 







A slow-moving front is forecast to be the focus for thunderstorms with locally 

heavy rainfall across the parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Tennessee 

Valley. The spatial extent of the slight risk of heavy precipitation, valid on 

July 11 and 12, is generally based on where there are enhanced 24-hour rainfall 

amounts from the GEFS and ECENS. Beyond the early part of week-2, any diurnal 

convection is expected to become more scattered across the eastern U.S. whichprecludes the continuation of the slight risk past July 12. 







An amplified 500-hPa trough is forecast to become established over Alaska by 

the beginning of week-2. This anomalous trough favors much cooler temperatures 

and above-normal precipitation across much of Alaska. Unseasonably cold 

temperatures and even snow may affect the Brooks Range and North Slope later 

next week. 



FORECASTER: Brad Pugh 



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