FXUS02 KWNH 220801

PREEPD



Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

400 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Valid 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 29 2026



...Anomalous early season heat wave from Southwest to the South-

Central U.S. returns midweek...





...Overview...



A potent shortwave will eject out of a closed mid-level low

centered over the Gulf of Alaska and propagate across the northern

tier of the United States beginning Wednesday. At the surface, a

low pressure system will bring rain and mountain snow to the

Pacific Northwest followed by rain and snow to the Northeastern

quarter of the country. A prominent ridge over the Southwest will

expand eastward, carrying anomalous warm temperatures and

increased fire potential to portions of the Central U.S. mid-week.

Ridge begins to degrade under the influence of an approaching

Pacific trough next weekend.





...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...



There's general agreement on the overall synoptic evolution of the

mid-level pattern across the CONUS during the medium range period.

There is some uncertainty regarding the amplitude and timing of

shortwave energy propagating through the northern stream between

Wednesday and Friday. Some models also signal one unified shortwave

and others depict a pair of them.



A general model blend favoring the available deterministic and Ai

guidance

were used on days 3 and 4, followed by a deterministic

Euro/ensemble means favored blend through the end of the period.





...Weather/Hazards Highlights...



A low pressure system departing into the Canadian Meritime will

produce some snow across the interior Northeast on Wednesday.

Another system will track from the Pacific Northwest across the

northern tier of the CONUS beginning Wednesday. This system will

bring rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday

into early Thursday, followed by snow across the Great Lakes and

into the Northeast on Thursday and Friday.



An anomalous ridge will continue to generate well above average

temperatures from the Southwest to the southern central U.S.

through mid-week.







Kebede





Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC

medium range hazards outlook chart at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,

quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall

outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat

indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw































































$$