FXUS02 KWBC 221937

PMDEPD



Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

337 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Valid 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 29 2026



...Anomalous early season heat wave from Southwest to the South-

Central U.S. renews midweek...





...Overview...



Ample shortwave energies will eject out of a closed mid-level low 

centered over the Gulf of Alaska and propagate across the northern 

tier of the CONUS Wednesday into next weekend. At the surface, a 

low pressure system will bring some rain and mountain snow from the

Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies by midweek followed by 

rain and snow from parts of the Midwest to the Northeastern quarter

of the country later week. Canadian high pressure will dig broadly 

southward in earnest in the wake of trailing cold frontal passage.

A prominent Southwest U.S. upper ridge will expand eastward, 

carrying anomalous warm temperatures and increased fire potential 

to parts of the Central U.S. into mid-late week. The Western ridge

begins to degrade due to an approaching Pacific trough late week.



...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...



There's good guidance agreement on the larger scale flow evolution

over the lower 48 and vicinity during the medium range period in a

generally benign weather pattern with above normal predictability.

A guidance blend seems to offer a good forecast basis Wednesday 

into Friday. There is uncertainty regarding the amplitude and 

timing of the shortwave energy propagating through the northern 

stream and with Pacific energy working into the Southwestern upper 

ridge in particular heading into/through next weekend. Compatible 

ensemble means seem the better way to go at these longer frames as

they are more cycle to cycle consistent with the more predictable 

details best in line with machine learning guidance and the NBM.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...



A low pressure system departing into the Canadian Maritime will 

produce some snow across the interior Northeast on Wednesday.

Another system will track from the Pacific Northwest to the

Northeast beginning Wednesday. This system will bring rain and 

mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday into early 

Thursday, followed by snow across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes 

and into the interior Northeast/northern New England on Thursday 

and Friday. Rain will occur along the leading edge of the cold 

front, spreading across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

There will also be some opportunity for some moderate rains and

some wintry weather sliding southward with the cooling central to 

eastern U.S. wavy front next weekend with shortwave energy

passages. There may also be spotty stronger thunderstorms over the

south-central U.S. into the upper ridge with dryline and/or frontal

approach that would be slow to translate if they manage to develop.



An anomalous ridge will continue to generate well above average

temperatures from the Southwest to the southern central U.S.

through mid-week. High temperatures from the upper 70s to low 90s

from the Four Corners to the Central/Southern Plains will be 30-40

degrees above average on Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread

temperature records may be tied or broken from the Southwest to the

Mississippi Valley during this time. Mild temperatures, low

dewpoints and gusty winds will increase the threat of fires over 

portions of the Central High Plains Wednesday into Thursday.





Kebede/Schichtel





Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC 

medium range hazards outlook chart at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, 

quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall 

outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat 

indices, and Key Messages canbe accessed from:



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw







































































$$