FXUS02 KWBC 220818

PMDEPD



Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

418 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Valid 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 29 2026



...Anomalous early season heat wave from Southwest to the South-

Central U.S. returns midweek...





...Overview...



A potent shortwave will eject out of a closed mid-level low

centered over the Gulf of Alaska and propagate across the northern

tier of the CONUS beginning Wednesday. At the surface, a low 

pressure system will bring rain and mountain snow to the Pacific 

Northwest followed by rain and snow to parts of the Northeastern 

quarter of the country. A prominent ridge over the Southwest will 

expand eastward, carrying anomalous warm temperatures and increased

fire potential to portions of the Central U.S. mid-week. The

Western ridge begins to degrade due to an approaching Pacific 

trough next weekend.





...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...



There's general agreement on the overall synoptic evolution of the

mid-level pattern across the CONUS during the medium range period.

There is some uncertainty regarding the amplitude and timing of

the shortwave energy propagating through the northern stream 

between Wednesday and Friday. Some models also signal one unified 

shortwave and others depict a pair of them.



A general model blend favoring the available deterministic and Ai guidance

were used on days 3 and 4, followed by a deterministic

Euro/ensemble means favored blend through the end of the period.





...Weather/Hazards Highlights...



A low pressure system departing into the Canadian Maritime will 

produce some snow across the interior Northeast on Wednesday.

Another system will track from the Pacific Northwest to the

Northeast beginning Wednesday. This system will bring rain and 

mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday into early 

Thursday, followed by snow across the Great Lakes and into the 

interior Northeast/northern New England on Thursday and Friday. 

Rain will occur along the leading edge of the cold front, spreading

across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.



An anomalous ridge will continue to generate well above average

temperatures from the Southwest to the southern central U.S.

through mid-week. High temperatures from the upper 70s to low 90s

from the Four Corners to the Central/Southern Plains will be 30-40

degrees above average on Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread

temperature records may be tied or broken from the Southwest to the

Mississippi Valley during this time. Mild temperatures, low

dewpoints and gusty winds will increase the threat of fires over 

portions of the Central High Plains on Wednesday.





Kebede





Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC 

medium range hazards outlook chart at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, 

quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall 

outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat 

indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw



































































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