FXUS01 KWBC 201907

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

305 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Valid 00Z Mon Sep 21 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 23 2026



...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over

parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Central Appalachians

to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday...



...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over

parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and the Southern

Rockies/Southern High Plains/Southwest on Tuesday...



...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over

parts of the Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday...



A wave of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move eastward off

the Northeast Coast by Tuesday and produce heavy rain over parts

of the Ohio Valley into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of

excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley into parts of the

Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The associated

heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,

with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being

the most vulnerable.



Upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms with

heavy rain over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Therefore,

the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall

over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday into Monday

morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized

areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,

and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.



In addition, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over

the Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday. Therefore,

the SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe

thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains and the

Southern Plains through Monday morning.  The hazards associated

with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe

thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.



On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of

the Mid-Atlantic to parts of the Northern/Central Plains and

southward to the Southeast/Gulf Coast. Additionally, an

upper-level low moving over Southern California will produce

showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest and

Central/Southern California.



On Tuesday, another wave of low pressure will move over the

Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, developing showers and

thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a

Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the

Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic.  The associated heavy

rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with

urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the

most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will also extend from

the Mid-Atlantic southward into Florida.



Moreover, moisture flowing northwestward over Texas into the

Southern Rockies will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy

rain over parts of the Southern Rockies and Southwest. Therefore,

the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall

over parts of the Southern Rockies and Southwest.  The associated

heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,

with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being

the most vulnerable. The showers and thunderstorms will extend

northward into the Central Rockies/Central High Plains.







Ziegenfelder







Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php













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