FXUS01 KWBC 032001

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

400 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Valid 00Z Fri Jul 04 2025 - 00Z Sun Jul 06 2025



...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the

northern Plains for the 4th of July with lingering areas of heavy

rainfall possible across western Texas and Florida.



...Strong thunderstorms will be possible for Friday and Saturday

across most of the Plains and along the Upper Midwest as a front

enters the region...



Heat will be migrating eastwards from the Great Lakes region

towards the East Coast through the Holiday weekend, with notable

population centers entering the Major Heat Risk category...



In general, the forecast weather pattern has not changed from

yesterday's thoughts. For the 4th of July, there will still be

ample moisture at the surface across the Southwest. The flooding

risk may not be as high as previous days, but a Marginal Risk

continues across areas of western Texas where locally heavy rain

amounts could prompt flash flooding, especially in low lying

areas. Florida will continue to see abundant showers and

thunderstorms on Friday with the combination of lowering pressures

around a decaying frontal boundary. Some areas along the Tampa Bay

region may see locally heavy rain, even for July standards in the

region, which could produce ponding in low-lying locations. For

the High Plains into Minnesota, some stronger, organized storms

could fire along a cold front moving into the region tomorrow.

Training of linear storm clusters could drop 2-3 inches of

rainfall and thus WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive

Rainfall (level 2/4).



The 4th of July could be stormy for much of the central and

northern Plains. Energy from a shortwave trough within the broader

trough moving in from the west should spark organized

thunderstorms from Kansas to North Dakota over the next few days.

The northern Rockies and upper Midwest could also see locally

strong storms on Saturday with the proximity to a cold front

moving into the area. The main hazards should be strong winds with

storm clusters that organize. Some hail will also be possible in

super-cellular structures. The Storm Prediction Center also

continues to show an Elevated fire weather risk across the Great

Basin tomorrow with gusty winds and low relative humidities.



For temperatures on the 4th of July, most of the West, southern

Plains, and Northeast should see temperatures slightly below

average for this time of the year. Highs in the West will see 70s

and 60s in the northern parts of the region, while the southern

part of the West still reaches the lower to middle 80s. The Desert

Southwest will be in the low 100s and plenty warm still. The

rainfall will keep temperatures in check around Texas and Florida

with highs mostly in the upper 80s. A cold front will clear the

Northeast and bring lower humidity with maximum temperatures in

the 70s and the 80s. The hotpot for the 4th will be the Midwest

and Ohio Valley with high temperatures in the middle 90s. This

heat will shift towards the east coast into the early work week

and late weekend. Residents in cities from the Great Lakes to the

urban corridor by Sunday and Monday will want to drink plenty of

water and take cool breaks.







Wilder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php





$$