FXUS01 KWBC 030726

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

325 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Valid 12Z Thu Jul 03 2025 - 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025



...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the

Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies and Eastern Gulf Coast on

Thursday and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday...



...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over

parts of the Northern Plains and parts of the Northeast and

northern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...



On Thursday, a front along the Southeast Coast and Central Gulf

Coast will linger through Friday morning before dissipating on the

4th of July. Tropical moisture over Florida and upper-level energy

will trigger showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts

of the western coast of the Florida Peninsula.  Therefore, the WPC

has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over

parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast through Friday morning.  The

associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash

flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying

areas the most vulnerable.



In addition, moisture streaming northwestward over the Southern

Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over

parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the

WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall

over parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies through

Friday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly

localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small

streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.



Furthermore, a second front over the Northern Rockies/Northern

Intermountain Region and into parts of the Pacific Northwest will

move eastward, the Northern High Plains to the Northern Rockies

and into the Northern Intermountain Region by late Thursday night.

The front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts

of the Northern Plains Thursday evening into Friday morning.

Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe

thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Friday

morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are

frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a

few tornadoes. There will be an added threat of hail two inches or

greater over the area.



Moreover, a front extending from the Great Lakes to the Northern

Plains will move eastward off the Northeast Coast by Friday

morning. On Thursday, the front will trigger showers and severe

thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and northern

Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level

2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and the

northern Mid-Atlantic through Friday morning.  The hazards

associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe

thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.



Additionally, on Thursday, upper-level energy, daytime heating,

and moisture will develop showers and thunderstorms over parts of

the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, Northern

Rockies, and Great Basin.  



Meanwhile, on the 4th of July, as the front over the Northern High

Plains moves across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi

Valley, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of

the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The

showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of

the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC

has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over

parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley from Friday

through Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create

mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,

small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.



Also on the 4th of July, showers and thunderstorms will develop

over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, Northern

Rockies, and the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin.

Further, upper-level energy and ample moisture will trigger

showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern

Rockies and Central/Southern Plains on Friday. Furthermore,

upper-level energy and ample moisture will create showers and

thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Tennessee

Valley, Southeast, Central/Southern Appalachians, and southern

Mid-Atlantic on the 4th of July.





Ziegenfelder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php





$$