FXUS01 KWBC 022016

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

416 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025



Valid 00Z Thu Jul 03 2025 - 00Z Sat Jul 05 2025



...Scattered Flash Flooding will be possible across western Texas

and New Mexico and around the Tampa Bay region for Thursday...



...Severe thunderstorms are likely to form over the Dakotas and

across the Northeast tomorrow...



Above average temperatures will be translating eastward across the

Plains to the eastern seaboard by the end of the week...



The overall weather pattern will generally see a mid-level ridge

build and move eastward across the northern Plains and Midwest for

tomorrow and then to the east coast by the weekend. Anomalous

warmth across the Midwest and Plains for Thursday and Friday will

then be felt along the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and east coast 

for the 4th of July weekend. Then, a trough will move into the

West and bring a surface cold front across the northern Rockies

and Dakotas for tomorrow into Friday, sparking locally strong

thunderstorms across the High Plains and upper Midwest. A frontal

boundary will clear most of the east coast and bring much drier

conditions, but the front will stall across northern Florida and

interact with tropical moisture to produce locally heavy rain,

especially around the Sun Coast and Tampa Bay, and may produce

flash flooding. Monsoonal moisture will bring locally heavy

rainfall to parts of the Southwest.



On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain

will continue to occur over parts of Florida. Therefore, the WPC

has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over

parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast for Thursday; the QPF forecast

calls for another 2-3 inches possible for tomorrow with locally

heavier amounts possible. Main hazards will be localized areas of

flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and

low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Locally heavy rain will

linger over Florida for the 4th of July weekend, but the flooding

risk should lessen.



Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream across the Southwest

for Thursday, with a targeted Slight Risk across portions of West

Texas and New Mexico. High rainfall rates will be promoted by high

surface moisture and sensitive areas could flood that see a couple

of inches of rain in a short time.



On Friday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect for

the northern Rockies and the northern Plains as a front provides a

source for potential clusters of thunderstorms atop the ridge.

Surface fronts and general troughing atop the ridge will also

support severe potential across the Dakotas for tomorrow with the

main hazards of damaging winds and hail. The risk for strong

storms with damaging wind and hail potential will then shift

eastward on Friday across parts of the Dakotas into the upper

Midwest. The Northeast will see severe thunderstorms on Thursday

as a cold front enters the region. Strong winds and some hail are

the most likely threats.





Wilder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php





$$