FXHW01 KWNH 070828

PMDHI 



Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

428 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026



Valid 00Z Fri 08 May 2026 - 00Z Fri 15 May 2026



Expect northerly flow across the islands in the next 24 to 36

hours following the passage of a trough that disrupt the typical 

trade wind pattern. For most areas...excluding the Big 

Island...that generally spells a period of clouds and showers in 

the wake of sea and land breezes. After the remnant front fully 

dissipates, winds should gradually veer for a return to moderate 

trades by Thursday or Friday, with some showers in windward/mauka 

areas.



Latest numerical guidance still shows the base of an upper trough

could reach southward into Hawaii over the weekend. This pattern 

favors moisture and instability being drawn northeastward 

particularly over Kauai and vicinity ahead of a front just north, 

for potentially enhanced rain chances. The upper trough is 

forecast to develop further into an upper low to the northeast of 

Hawaii early to mid- next week, potentially sending more frontal 

boundaries towards the northern islands. Even though the 

difference has tightened up somewhat between the ECMWF and GFS 

runs and how they handle front across or near to Hawaii...detail 

differences remain. Will continue to monitor the potential for an 

active pattern with the fronts.



Bann