FXCA20 KWBC 271753

PMDCA 



Tropical Discussion - International Desks

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

153 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Forecast Bulletin 27 October 2025 at 1800 UTC:



Hurricane Melissa:



Hurricane Melissa will continue to severely impact Jamaica and

Haiti for the next several days. Significant moisture, with

precipitable water values over 70mm, will continue to flow from

the southeast into Jamaica and the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti.

Strong low-level winds will be orographically enhanced in the

higher terrain of these areas as well, yielding higher

precipitation totals.  Torrential rain will continue until at

least Wednesday and additional totals around 500-750mm are

expected, with isolated amounts even higher possible in Jamaica.

As the track eventually shifts to a northeasterly motion, remnant

southerly flow will continue to provide moisture for precipitation

to continue in the Tiburon Peninsula from today until the end of

the work week. The heaviest precipitation in Haiti is expected to

occur on Wednesday, and additional precipitation totals of

300-400mm are expected for southwest Haiti from today through

Friday.



In Cuba, effects from Hurricane Melissa will begin to be felt as

early as tonight, as southeasterly flow begins to enter the

southeast of Cuba, with rainfall expected to begin. The influence

of an upper-level trough in the mid-latitudes will take the storm

with it, and a more progressive northeasterly track is expected

beginning tomorrow. Precipitation totals will be significant, but

lower than those in Jamaica due to a quicker progression through

the island. Heaviest precipitation in Cuba is expected to occur

from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening, and storm total

precipitation of 400-500mm is expected through Friday.



On Wednesday evening, Hurricane Melissa is forecast to move

through the southern Bahamas. Although it will move through the

Bahamas quickly, heavy precipitation is expected from Wednesday

through Friday. High-end storm total accumulations of 200-300mm

are expected in parts of the southern Bahamas.



Mexico and Central America:



A long fetch plume of moisture is forecast to flow from the west

into Costa Rica and Panama over the next three days. Due to

orographic interaction on the southern coasts, heavy coastal

precipitation is expected today and Tuesday in Costa Rica and

Panama. On Wednesday, a strengthening of the upper-level jet will

limit the vertical extent of convection that occurs, and lower

precipitation totals are expected. With that, heavy precipitation

is still expected today, with 40-80mm expected in Costa Rica, and

25-50mm expected in Panama.



Dry conditions will continue for most of Mexico for the entire

forecast period. On Wednesday, however, a cold front is expected

to make its way down from the southeast U.S., and will move

quickly through the Gulf. The tail-end of the front will bring

precipitation to Veracruz on Wednesday, with 20-35mm of

precipitation expected.



In Honduras, moisture associated with Hurricane Melissa with

northerly flow will move into the north coast of Honduras, and

will bring light precipitation over the next two days. On

Wednesday, the aforementioned cold front expected to affect

Veracruz, will aid in converging moisture into the Gulf of

Honduras, bringing locally heavy precipitation in Belize,

Guatemala, and Honduras. Precipitation totals of up to 20-35mm are

expected on Wednesday.



Tropical South America:



Most of Tropical South America will continue experiencing

seasonable precipitation, with no major changes in the overall

pattern. Precipitation will be mostly due to low-level troughs,

enhanced low-level moisture convergence, and localized effects. 

Most precipitation throughout the forecast period is expected to

occur over the Pacific coast of Colombia, with long-fetch Pacific

moisture feeding into the region. Lower-level easterly flow will

continue to be orographically lifted in the eastern side of the

mountains, with seasonable and local convection occurring daily.

Southwest moisture flow is also anticipated due to the influence

of Hurricane Melissa, and localized heavy precipitation is

expected in the valleys of northern Colombia and Venezuela.







Positions of Tropical/Easterly Waves Initialized at 12 UTC

TYP SOF INIT  28/00  28/12 29/00  29/12  30/00  30/12  31/00

TW  19N  28W   31W   34W   39W    42W    44W    49W   52W  



For the latest available charts please visit:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml



Blanco-Alcala...(WPC)

$$