FXAK68 PAFC 221248

AFDAFC



Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

448 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...



A complex low with two low centers remains in the Gulf and will

slowly move southeast over the next 24 to 48 hours. As these lows

weaken and move south, winds will diminish as the pressure 

gradient weakens. Moving into Monday and the early part of the 

work week the pattern will amplify, with a strong upper level 

ridge expanding over the Bering and a weak northerly jet moving 

over the mainland. A few weak upper level disturbances will move 

through the flow through Wednesday, but the bulk of the energy has

shifted more towards Southwest Alaska compared to the last few 

days worth of model runs showing it moving over Southcentral. For 

the sensible weather, gap winds will still increase through most 

of the typical locations with each shortwave passage and 

temperatures will be average to slightly below average. Dry 

conditions will persist. 



&&





.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS 

(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...



Relatively much warmer temperatures observed last night over 

Southwest is a mark of the pattern shift ongoing for the region. 

As gusty northerly winds wane, the deep frigid air in Southwest 

has moved out and allowed for relatively warmer temperatures in 

it's place. This ease of the winds will also diminish the presence

of extreme freezing spray rates across the Bering Sea.



Ridging remaining over the area will continue to promote clear

skies across much of the region, with most of the Aleutians still

under the cloud deck developing over the remaining open water of

the southern Bering Sea. Farther out west, a weak front has filled

in behind the ridge bringing rainfall and southeasterly winds to

the western-most Aleutian Chain. This front will very slowly push

eastward, but is expected to weaken significantly before reaching

Adak. Thus, this trend will allow for Adak and Atka to remain dry

through mid-week. A second North Pacific front will lift to the 

Western Aleutians early Tuesday morning with more rain across the 

Western Chain through Tuesday.



-CL



&&





.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through 

Saturday)...



The long term forecast consists of general troughing across the 

Gulf and the breakdown of a persistent vertically stacked ridge 

over the Bering. The pattern across the west begins to deamplify 

and flatten/tilt eastward heading into Wednesday with the 

combination of upper level waves riding over and cutting into the 

ridge, and a relatively deep trough west of the western Aleutians 

encroaching on the ridge from the west. At the surface, the 

progression of collapsing the ridge will allow a front moving 

across the Western Aleutians to gain momentum Wednesday afternoon 

and move eastward, which will also introduce some relatively 

warmer air into the region. For the east, continuous troughing 

with an upper level low over the north-central Gulf will keep 

showery and gusty conditions going along the Gulf coast through 

late week as waves with associated vorticity advection rotate 

around the low. The global models show that the overall trough 

itself skirts eastward this weekend. Meanwhile, a digging trough 

works its way over the Aleutian Chain late this weekend, sending 

its associated surface low southeastward across the North Pacific 

by the start of next week. The GFS/EC's temperature anomalies 

suggest that the east stays well below average through the end of 

the long term with some moderation in surface temperatures for the

west-central Bering.





-AM



&&



.AVIATION...



PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.



&&





$$