FXAK68 PAFC 091317

AFDAFC



Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

517 AM AKDT Fri May 9 2025



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...



A ridge of high pressure over the Interior will keep skies mostly

sunny throughout Southcentral today as a weak low in the central

Gulf continues to weaken. Some afternoon cumulus may develop with

some showers possible on the Kenai Peninsula, southern Copper

Valley and Kodiak Island, otherwise the drying trend will 

continue. The next 3 days will likely be the warmest observed this

spring with multiple days of high pressure ridging setting up. 

The existing ridge over the Interior will connect with a high 

amplitude ridge developing over the north Pacific starting 

Saturday. This will bring in subsidence and northwest flow aloft, 

both combining to bring widespread sunshine and warmer

temperatures throughout the region through Mother's Day. The high

pressure will quickly get pushed off to the east on Monday as a 

broad low pressure system in the Bering sends a front and strong 

upper level shortwave into Southcentral. This will bring 

widespread rain and some mountain snow to start the work week. 



&&





.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS 

(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday morning)...



Generally cloudy, wet, and windy weather for the Bering Sea, 

Aleutian Islands, and Alaska Peninsula through Saturday. For 

Southwest Alaska, generally sunny with afternoon convection. From

late Saturday night through Monday morning, much more active 

weather is in store across the region as a strong low moves from 

the North Pacific into the Bering Sea. Currently, a Flood Advisory

is in effect along the Kuskokwim River near Napakiak and along 

Brown's Slough in Bethel.



Diving into the details...a low northwest of Nikolski this morning

will linger in the area through the afternoon, then curve towards

the northwest Bering Sea through Saturday. Its front is currently

bringing gusts as high as 30-45 mph across the Eastern Aleutians

and southern Alaska Peninsula, as well as steady rain. Conditions

begin improving later this afternoon as the low moves towards the

Pribilof Islands and the front begins to weaken.



With the front progressing no further east than the Alaska

Peninsula, the remainder of Southwest Alaska will see fairer

weather today. Clearer skies will allow for good daytime heating,

with temperatures today forecast to rise into the high 50s. While

this will likely be enough to spur on some convection, dewpoint 

temperatures hovering in the 20s to 30s will likely make the 

environment too moisture-limited for strong convection. An 

isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible for Kuskokwim Valley

and the Lime Village area, but the likelihood is lower than 

previously forecast.



By late Saturday night, a North Pacific low will strengthen as it

moves into the Bering Sea. Forecast confidence has steadily

improved, but there remains some forecast uncertainty. Confidence

is fairly high that winds will reach gale force with this storm, 

with the potential for storm force gusts. Unless model guidance 

shifts drastically, it looks like forecast uncertainty with this 

storm will mostly pertain to timing differences. One other item of

note is the potential for onshore, southeasterly flow to bring

elevated coastal water levels to the Kuskokwim Delta coast, around

Kwigillingok and Kongiganak. We'll continue to monitor this

potential as we hone in on the forecast for this storm.



-Chen



&&





.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through 

Thursday)...



An amplified upper-level low spans from the Bering Sea to 

Southeast Alaska. Strong southerly flow and ample moisture will 

bring steady precipitation across the Alaska Peninsula on Monday 

morning and the Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Unsettled weather 

will continue across Southwest on Tuesday as a second system 

crosses the central Aleutians and lingers in the Bering Sea, and 

again on Wednesday for Southcentral when a triple point along its

front sweeps across the Gulf on Wednesday to reach the Southeast 

part of the state by Thursday morning.





&&



.AVIATION...



PANC... Ceilings will drop into MVFR with rain showers this 

morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions as chances for showers 

will decrease today. Up-Inlet flow along with Turnagain winds will

return today, bringing southerly wind to the terminal. Cook Inlet

winds will strengthen this afternoon with a sea breeze that will 

likely shift winds westerly for a few hours this afternoon. Winds 

weaken tonight and become northerly after midnight.



&&





$$