FXAK67 PAJK 092316 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 316 PM AKDT Fri May 9 2025 .SHORT TERM... Key Points: - Rain continues as shortwaves and a weak cold front move southeast across the panhandle. - Winds begin to decrease tonight for the gulf. - Eastern inner channels continue to see times of increased winds. Details: Rain continues focused on the central panhandle. Times of moderate rain will continue as a shortwave is followed by a weak cold front. This cold front begins to move southeast tonight through saturday moving the rain focus toward the southern panhandle. At this time, rain rates decrease before ridging forms over the gulf Saturday night. Fluctuations in wind speeds will occur as each weather feature affects the panhandle tonight into Saturday. Winds stay elevated across the central and southern panhandle as the cold front moves over the area tonight. These winds will diminish late tonight into tomorrow morning. Then, as a ridge develops over the gulf, a change in wind direction will occur switching from southerly winds to northerly winds north of Sumner Strait. .LONG TERM...Little change to the midrange forecast, with much of the same idea going forward. Sunday will see the first day in southeast Alaska with widespread clearing skies and warmer temperatures. Skies look to clear from northwest to southeast, so areas in the southern panhandle will likely see clearing later in the day. Expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s with some areas possibly exceeding 60 degrees. For Monday, a shortwave aloft looks to come racing across the northern gulf, associated with a broad upper level low in the Bering Sea. An associated surface low will extend a fast moving front over the panhandle, bringing more rain and wind to the area. Not expecting winds higher than a fresh breeze, mainly for the Icy Strait area and north. Main area of concern would be the quickly dropping pressure in northern B.C. and pressure rises behind the front could bring up to stronger winds of 20-25 knots to northern Lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet, and Skagway. Beyond the Monday Tuesday system, solutions become increasingly divergent, but what is certain is that the active pattern will continue. Trends are increasing on a system developing in the central gulf, with a gale force front extending to the east moving up from the south. As it stands now, not confident enough to have gale force winds along the coastline. && .AVIATION...MVFR to VFR conditions will continue to remain predominant through much of Sunday across the panhandle. A brief lull in the heavier precip Friday evening gives way Friday night as a stronger band of rain and wind move across the panhandle. Anticipate another surge of LLWS with this next band. Strongest winds are expected for the southern half of the panhandle, though LLWS will reach most of the area. && .MARINE... Outside Waters: Winds along the southern coast continue to decrease into tomorrow. The strongest of these winds are located west of POW with 20 to 25 kts diminishing. Heading into Saturday, light winds are expected for the outside waters as high pressure builds into the area. Due to high pressure building, a change in wind direction will occur becoming northerly along the coast. This larger ridge, next to a weaker ridge over the southeast panhandle, will increase the pressure gradient. In turn, winds in the southeast gulf will increase once again Saturday night. Inside Waters: Variations in wind direction and speeds will occur across the central and southern inside waters as a shortwave is followed by a weak front tonight. Behind this front, most places will see winds decrease and a change from southerly to northerly winds as we head into Saturday. The exception from this will be Clarence Strait as moderate to strong breezes (15 to 20 kts) and southerly winds continue through Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY...Shortwaves embedded within a weak frontal band will continue to bring precipitation across much of the area tonight through Saturday afternoon. Although no flooding is expected, river rises are still likely to occur. A majority of the precipitation will be focused on the central to southern panhandle as the week cold front moves southeast. An additional 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain are expected into tomorrow. Higher totals are possible at elevation. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ033-035-036-641-642-644-661. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAB LONG TERM....NC AVIATION...GFS MARINE...EAB HYDROLOGY...EAB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau