FXAK67 PAJK 091202

AFDAJK



Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Juneau AK

402 AM AKDT Fri May 9 2025



.SHORT TERM...Low pressure continues to remain over the Gulf this

morning while rain continues to spread northward. The heaviest

rain is expected this morning into the afternoon for the central

panhandle. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected for the area through

tomorrow. Winds across the area are expected to increase as the

next low moves into the panhandle this evening bringing a

reinforcing wave of rain to the area. 



.LONG TERM...Much better consensus between ensemble members regarding 

timing and location of heaviest rain rates for the central and 

southern panhandle. Saturday will see the final of multiple waves 

moving up along the front in the eastern gulf. An embedded wave will 

be near Prince of Wales Island, and push into the Yukon over the 

morning hours. Associated with this wave will be moderate to heavy, 

with rain rates maximizing around 0.1 inches per hour. Southerly 

winds look to remain steady at around a fresh to strong breeze in 

the very early hours of Saturday. Behind the wave moving northward 

is a weak cold front in the eastern gulf, which is expected to move 

to the east slowly over the course of Saturday. In the post frontal 

environment, winds and rain are expected to diminish quite rapidly. 

Good confidence that the cold front will push as far east as 

Petersburg down to Hydaburg, but some solutions are keeping the 

moisture tap over the southern panhandle well into Saturday 

afternoon. While dynamics aloft do not look to support heavier 

rainfall beyond Saturday afternoon, lingering rain in the area may 

continue into Saturday Night.



Sunday will see the first day in southeast Alaska with widespread 

clearing skies and warmer temperatures. Skies look to clear from 

northwest to southeast, so areas in the southern panhandle will 

likely see clearing later in the day. Expect temperatures in the mid 

to upper 50s with some areas possibly exceeding 60 degrees.



For Monday, a shortwave aloft looks to come racing across the 

northern gulf, associated with a broad upper level low in the Bering 

Sea. An associated surface low will extend a fast moving front over 

the panhandle, bringing more rain and wind to the area. Not 

expecting winds higher than a fresh breeze, mainly for the Icy 

Strait area and north. Main area of concern would be the quickly 

dropping pressure in northern B.C. and pressure rises behind the 

front could bring up to stronger winds of 20-25 knots to northern 

Lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet, and Skagway. .



&&



.AVIATION...As the next wave of rain moves north, MVFR conditions

are expected to spread through the panhandle today with those

conditions lasting well into tonight.



There will be a lull in the LLWS later this afternoon into this

evening, but as the next shortwave tracks north, another round of

LLWS will spread north for tonight and could last into Saturday

morning.



&&



.MARINE...Outside Waters: Winds are expected to come up this

evening with the potential for for winds reaching up to near gales

for the outer coast. Especially for places that see gap winds.

Seas are expected to build as well in the same areas with the

increasing winds. Sea heights are expected to reach up to 10 ft

while farther north, seas are expected to remain below 8 ft.

Heading into the weekend, light winds are expected for the outside

waters as high pressure builds into the area.



Inside Waters: Winds this morning continue to be light for most

locations with the few exceptions of Clarence Strait and 

east/west oriented locations such as Cape Spencer and Scull 

Island. Wind speeds are expected to come up today with wind speeds

getting up to 20 to 25 kt for the Inner Channels. Most places 

will see winds decrease as we head into Saturday with the 

exception of Clarence Strait as well as parts of Stephens Passage.





&&



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>036-641>644-651-661>664-671. 



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SF

LONG TERM....NC

AVIATION...GJS

MARINE...SF



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