FOUS30 KWBC 271530

QPFERD



Excessive Rainfall Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1130 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Day 1

Valid 16Z Mon Oct 27 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS 

OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...



A few locations observed several inches of rainfall that lead to

areas of flash flooding yesterday. Additional rainfall this

morning will continue to be impactful to the vulnerable coastal

locations. An approaching upper level trough is helping to aid

divergence/difluence aloft. Onshore flow is allowing for sufficient

moisture and instability to move ashore, and the low-level flow 

and upper level flow are nearly balanced, implying storms with 

heavy rainfall shouldn't go advance too far inland. Back building 

and training of convection will be possible. A Marginal Risk area 

was maintained for the eastern coastline given the potential 

impacts from additional rainfall over saturated soils.



Otherwise with this update, the MRGL risk across the Southern 

Appalachians and surroundings was removed as rainfall rates are

expected to remain below 0.5"/hr with very limited instability.

While localized ~2" totals are expected, the relatively long

duration rainfall with drought conditions and much below average

streamflows should allow for beneficial rainfall for the region. 



Churchill/Campbell





Day 2

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE 

MID-SOUTH AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND 

OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...



A cold front effecting from the West into the Plains will have

scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with

it during this period. While rain falling over parts of the central

U.S. will be beneficial given decent drought conditions, there is

a growing signal that heavy rain may focus over the Mid/Lower

Mississippi Valley thus increases the risk the potential for

isolated areas of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk was introduced

covering southeast Missouri, eastern Arkansas, northern

Mississippi, northwest Alabama, western Tennessee, and western

Kentucky.



Campbell





Day 3

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE 

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE

OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC...



The closed low will pivot from the Mid-South to the Southeast/Mid-

Atlantic allowing for showers and thunderstorms to overspread the

Tennessee Valley/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic region. Recent rainfall

over this region will have lowered local FFG and elevated risk for

heavy rainfall and local flash flooding concerns. A Marginal Risk

area spans from northern Georgia northward to West Virginia and

from central Kentucky to the western Carolinas and Virginia.



Campbell





Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt