FOUS30 KWBC 270821 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 421 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 27 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025 ... THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN Appalachians AND EASTERN FLORIDA COAST... ...SOUTHERN Appalachians/SOUTHEAST... The latest guidance continues to focus heavy rainfall in the higher terrain and surrounding locations in the Carolinas, northern Georgia and eastern Tennessee. During this period, low pressure will pivot to the northeast allowing for convection to spread across the southern Appalachians and Southeast. 40km neighborhood probabilities of 24hr qpf exceeding 5" is between 15-25% over portions of far western Carolinas, while EAS neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 3" is up to 5%. Localized amounts of over 2" are possible especially in the terrain. Isolated maximums near 2 inches remain possible across the region. The inherited Marginal Risk area was maintained given the elevated threat for local flash flooding. ...Eastern Florida... A few locations observed several inches of rainfall that lead to areas of flash flooding yesterday. Additional rainfall this morning will continue to be impactful to the vulnerable coastal locations. An approaching upper level trough is helping to aid divergence/difluence aloft. Onshore flow is allowing for sufficient moisture and instability to move ashore, and the low- level flow and upper level flow are nearly balanced, implying storms with heavy rainfall shouldn't go advance too far inland. Back building and training of convection will be possible. A Marginal Risk area was hoisted for the eastern coastline given the potential impacts from additional rainfall over saturated soils. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 ...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY... A cold front effecting from the West into the Plains will have scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with it during this period. While rain falling over parts of the central U.S. will be beneficial given decent drought conditions, there is a growing signal that heavy rain may focus over the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley thus increases the risk the potential for isolated areas of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk was introduced covering southeast Missouri, eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northwest Alabama, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025 ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL Appalachians/SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... The closed low will pivot from the Mid-South to the Southeast/Mid- Atlantic allowing for showers and thunderstorms to overspread the Tennessee Valley/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic region. Recent rainfall over this region will have lowered local FFG and elevated risk for heavy rainfall and local flash flooding concerns. A Marginal Risk area spans from northern Georgia northward to West Virginia and from central Kentucky to the western Carolinas and Virginia. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt