FOUS11 KWBC 050656

QPFHSD



Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

156 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026



...Upper Peninsula of Michigan...

Day 1...



Departing system sprawled across southeastern Canada will slowly 

exit the Great Lakes today, with a trailing vort max diving 

southward across Lake Superior this evening. Marginally cold air 

will filter in from the north with some lake-enhanced precipitation

on northerly flow. As the 850mb temperature drops below zero and 

surface T/Tds fall to the lower 30s, snow will accumulate over 

especially the higher terrain away from the relatively milder lake 

shore (e.g, Huron Mountains). Expected accumulation is 0.5-2.5" or 

so, but the probability of at least 4 inches of snow is 10-20% per 

the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal. 





The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than 

10 percent.





Fracasso





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